Covid-19

[CoyoteYankee]

Re: Covid-19

Gov. Cuomo today -"just stay away from people"

That's always been my motto.

The silver lining of this whole thing for me is that the downturn in people contact has been heaven for introverts like me who like to be alone.

[YankeePride1967]

Re: Covid-19

https://twitter.com/msnbc/status/124...501435905?s=21

Seven states have done very little to curb crowd sizes. Not surprisingly, all have a Republican Governor.

[fredgmuggs]

Re: Covid-19

Don't worry folks, the Hallmark Channel has stepped up and is providing a 3 day Christmas movie marathon this weekend to take your mind off all the things going on around us right now!

[Texsahara]

Re: Covid-19

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/u...-outbreak.html

The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion,” was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

The simulation’s sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed.

The draft report, marked “not to be disclosed,” laid out in stark detail repeated cases of “confusion” in the exercise. Federal agencies jockeyed over who was in charge. State officials and local hospitals struggled to figure out what kind of equipment was stockpiled or available. Cities and states went their own way on school closings.

Many of the potentially deadly consequences of a failure to address the shortcomings are now playing out in all-too-real fashion across the country. And it was hardly the first warning for the nation’s leaders. Three times over the past four years the U.S. government, across two administrations, had grappled in depth with what a pandemic would look like, identifying likely shortcomings and in some cases recommending specific action.

[Bub]

Re: Covid-19

The local supermarkets are letting seniors shop an hour before the stores open for everyone else, being anyone 60 or older. I plan to take advantage of that when supplies run low.

[Bub]

Re: Covid-19

So the governor of California said that he estimates 25.5 million residents of his state will have Covid-19 within 8 weeks. I'm searching for an explanation of how they came up with that estimate, and I don't doubt that the numbers will spike considerably, but 25.5 million seems like quite a lot when you look at the number in all of China which is less than 100,000.

[YankeePride1967]

Re: Covid-19

So the governor of California said that he estimates 25.5 million residents of his state will have Covid-19 within 8 weeks. I'm searching for an explanation of how they came up with that estimate, and I don't doubt that the numbers will spike considerably, but 25.5 million seems like quite a lot when you look at the number in all of China which is less than 100,000.

Dr. Fauci just did a Q&A on Facebook and said he thinks that would be the number if nothing was done. He thinks the number will be closer to 15-20 percent.

[Bub]

Re: Covid-19

Dr. Fauci just did a Q&A on Facebook and said he thinks that would be the number if nothing was done. He thinks the number will be closer to 15-20 percent.

That’s still 6 to 8 million.

[YankeePride1967]

Re: Covid-19

That’s still 6 to 8 million.

Yes and at the speed this is accelerating could very well be. I have seen some projections much higher

[Casey at the Bat]

Re: Covid-19

Gov Newsom just issued a statewide stay-at-home order.

[Saxmania]

Re: Covid-19

So the governor of California said that he estimates 25.5 million residents of his state will have Covid-19 within 8 weeks. I'm searching for an explanation of how they came up with that estimate, and I don't doubt that the numbers will spike considerably, but 25.5 million seems like quite a lot when you look at the number in all of China which is less than 100,000.

Yeah, unfortunately I think that China, South Korea, Singapore and so on are turning out to be best-case in some ways. They just have the means and preparation to crack down on social interactions, in part because China (and to an extent South Korea and Singapore) has an extremely strong central government, and in part because they saw SARS, and got prepared. That also applies somewhat to the population, who are probably more willing to observe quarantines for weeks at a time.

I'm not sure what the number will be in California, but I don't think any Western nation should be looking at China's results as achievable, assuming they can believe the numbers being shared anyway. Sadly, our goals need to be a lot more modest.

Be seeing you,

Saxmania

[Yankees1962]

Re: Covid-19

So the governor of California said that he estimates 25.5 million residents of his state will have Covid-19 within 8 weeks. I'm searching for an explanation of how they came up with that estimate, and I don't doubt that the numbers will spike considerably, but 25.5 million seems like quite a lot when you look at the number in all of China which is less than 100,000.

You actually believe those numbers coming out of China? I don't, I think the reported numbers are much lowered as it's part of their propaganda program.

[YFIB]

Re: Covid-19

You actually believe those numbers coming out of China? I don't, I think the reported numbers are much lowered as it's part of their propaganda program.

It's completely reasonable to be skeptical, but it does seem like they've stemmed the tide (for now, at least). Meanwhile, I think we still don't really know how many cases there are in the U.S.

[Yankees1962]

Re: Covid-19

It's completely reasonable to be skeptical, but it does seem like they've stemmed the tide (for now, at least). Meanwhile, I think we still don't really know how many cases there are in the U.S.

Perhaps, but I bet you a lot more people died in China than what was reported.

[Bub]

Re: Covid-19

You actually believe those numbers coming out of China? I don't, I think the reported numbers are much lowered as it's part of their propaganda program.

China has a population of 1.4 billion and California has a population of 40 million, so they have 35 times the population. Even if China is under-reporting by 10 times, that would mean that they have 1 million cases, compared to estimates of 6 to 8 million in California. Even considering the lockdown in China it's still hard to comprehend the difference between the two places.