2021 LV Raiders

[I C U Ms Frenchie]

Like I said, Im OK if they have a concession from Carr in place. I also would be OK if they didnt have the Carr concession if Adams was the final puzzle piece. But they have other holes, and they have 2 ways to fill those holes -- money and picks. This trade gives away both those ways. For a team without holes, Adams > Robinson + picks + dough. For a team with holes, Robinson + picks + dough > Adams. Just trying to be practical. If they find a way to plug the holes, then I will take it all back. And I think they took a step that way at CB. I was very skeptical about letting Hayward go, but getting those 2 CBs definitely softened the blow. If they can get Gilmore, thats going to be the top secondary in football. I was just counting on them getting a DT at 22 from G-Tech or A&M that would have the same impact as Barmore did, but thats not going to happen now. But instead, it looks like it will be a base 3-4 with Bilal Nichols as their 0-tech or 1-tech NT. So their remaining shopping list is:

List:
Right Tackle
2 LB's KJ Wright is a FA
Gilmore
Interior defensive linemen (they have Nichols, but all 4 from last year -- Hankins, Philon, Thomas and Jefferson-- are FAs and at least 2 need to be resigned or replaced, assuming a base 3-4.

Do you think they have enough $$ to do it?

[Yankees1962]

I'm liking this Adams contract even more since details have come out.

[I C U Ms Frenchie]

What details?

[Yankees1962]

What details?

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ctical-matter/

[I C U Ms Frenchie]

There is good and bad here. The 19.25 signing bonus is guaranteed at signing and prorated over 5 years for 3.85/year. The 20 million roster bonus becomes guaranteed when his 2nd year contract is picked up. So it prorates at 5 per year for 4 years -- 2023-6. Each year's P5 salary is charged to that year's cap -- 3.5 in 22, 6.03 in 23, 16.89 in 24, 35.64 in 25, 35.65 in 26. There are also 2 incentive and 1 roster bonus for comparative chump change, totalling .85/yr for 5 years. Assuming he makes all the incentives his cap hits are:

8.2 in 22
15.73 in 23
26.59 in 24
45.34 in 25
45.35 in 26

The first thing that jumps out is that he is going to be cut or traded in the 2025 preseason, unless somehow a 35.65 salary becomes the going rate for a WR of his skill level. If he is cut or traded before Jun1, 2025 his 2025 dead money cap hit will be 17.70 when he is no longer on the team. If he is cut or traded after Jun1, 2025 his 2025 dead money cap hit will be 8.85 and the other 8.85 dead money hit will be pushed to 2026.

So the almost certain cap impact of this contract will be:

8.2 in 22
15.73 in 23
26.59 in 24
17.70 in 25
if he is cut prior to Jun 1, 2025.

Or
8.2 in 22
15.73 in 23
26.59 in 24
8.85 in 25
8.85 in 26
if he is cut after Jun 1, 2025.

So his total cap hit for 3 years of play is 68.22 spread over 4 or 5 years as detailed above. And his trade value in 2025 is effectively nil. No one is going to pick up 2 years of a P5 salary of 35.65. And even if the Raiders miraculously find a taker, they aren’t going to get any draft capital back. So for the Raiders a trade is basically the same as a cut.

The second thing that jumps out is that the Raiders didn’t give up a 1st and a 2nd for 5 years of Adams. They gave them up for 3 years of Adams. So again I come back to an available alternative. Allen Robinson just signed a 3-year 46.5 contract. I don’t have his contract details, but the worst case is that its fully guaranteed and has no deferred payments. So LA is getting 85-90% of Adams production for the same length of time as the Adams deal for a total cap hit of 46.5, which is less than 75% of the 68.22 that Adams is getting. And they didn’t give up a #1 and a #2 to get it.

So overall, Im left with the same conclusion as before I saw his contract details. Yes, his cap hit will be far less than the 140+ million reported, but you cant separate that from the fact that that also makes the draft capital given up a bigger overpay. So Ive come full circle. For a Raiders team with other holes to fill, Robinson + a 1st + a 2nd + an extra, on average, 7.25 mill in additional cap space per year for 3 years > Adams. And Im not saying that this was a horrible thing to do. Im saying there were better available options. I reserve the right to change my mind if Adams beasts and carries us on his back through the playoffs to the super bowl.

[Yankees1962]

Whatever, I still like the trade so we disagree here which has been power for the course as you and I differ about the Raiders. I expect Adams to beast over the next three years, you seem to not think that's going to happen.

[I C U Ms Frenchie]

Well see who is available at 22 and what he does. You gonna feel the same way if someone like Olave is available and he winds up putting up CDLam's numbers? In that case we would have had Olave and Robinson and a 2nd pick for less than Adams. Heck, you could get Robinson and Julio Jones for less money and still have the 2 picks to use on defense. He better beast. And hes going to have to do it without Rodgers throwing the ball. When you got other needs, take quantity over quality. And you really arent sacrificing that much quality.

[I C U Ms Frenchie]

Whatever, I still like the trade so we disagree here which has been power for the course as you and I differ about the Raiders. I expect Adams to beast over the next three years, you seem to not think that's going to happen.

Im not saying he wont beast. But Carr is not Rogers. And even if he does beast, but the holes that dont get filled keep us down, then what?

[I C U Ms Frenchie]

Man, Renfro and Waller are going to have big years.

[Yankees1962]

Well see who is available at 22 and what he does. You gonna feel the same way if someone like Olave is available and he winds up putting up CDLam's numbers? In that case we would have had Olave and Robinson and a 2nd pick for less than Adams. Heck, you could get Robinson and Julio Jones for less money and still have the 2 picks to use on defense. He better beast. And hes going to have to do it without Rodgers throwing the ball. When you got other needs, take quantity over quality. And you really arent sacrificing that much quality.

Robinson is not in Adams class of a receiver. Stop equating the two. I've watched Olave, he's good, but nothing special in my opinion.

[Yankees1962]

Im not saying he wont beast. But Carr is not Rogers. And even if he does beast, but the holes that dont get filled keep us down, then what?

I think Carr is a better QB than you give him credit for and now that Gruden and Olsen are gone, we'll see better results in the red zone.

[Yankees1962]

Man, Renfro and Waller are going to have big years.

I wonder why????

[I C U Ms Frenchie]

Robinson is not in Adams class of a receiver. Stop equating the two. I've watched Olave, he's good, but nothing special in my opinion.

Please stop misrepresenting what I wrote. I havent equated them. Reread what I wrote. I said he would provide 85-90%. Maybe you should look at their career stats. They both started in 2014. Adams has 3 >1000 yard seasons topping out at 1553. Robinson has also topped 1000 3 times topping out at 1400. When healthy, Allen has produced about 85% of what Adams did. That's a undisputable fact. The stats dont lie. And this is despite the fact that Adams has played with one of the all-time great QBs for 8 years, while Robinson has played his entire career on moribund offenses with the likes of the immortal Andy Dalton, Mitch Trubiskie and Blake Bortles throwing to him. And I have given Carr a lot of credit, but Im also aware of his shortcomings. In previous posts Ive said he's around the 10th to 12th best qb in the game. Do I need to justify that? Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Rogers, Brady, Murray, Herbert, Prescott, Stafford, wilson are all better than Carr. And possibly Jackson as well. He's good, but he is no where near the caliber of Rodgers. So its not unreasonable to think that Adams historical productivity will still be great, but it will go down with Carr, and Robinson's would go up under Carr.

And it doesnt have to be Olave. It could be any productive players that they draft in the first 2 rounds and expect to be a starter or big contributor. It could be a LB. It could be a DT. It could be an OT.

[Yankees1962]

Please stop misrepresenting what I wrote. I havent equated them. Reread what I wrote. I said he would provide 85-90%. Maybe you should look at their career stats. They both started in 2014. Adams has 3 >1000 yard seasons topping out at 1553. Robinson has also topped 1000 3 times topping out at 1400. When healthy, Allen has produced about 85% of what Adams did. That's a undisputable fact. The stats dont lie. And this is despite the fact that Adams has played with one of the all-time great QBs for 8 years, while Robinson has played his entire career on moribund offenses with the likes of the immortal Andy Dalton, Mitch Trubiskie and Blake Bortles throwing to him. And I have given Carr a lot of credit, but Im also aware of his shortcomings. In previous posts Ive said he's around the 10th to 12th best qb in the game. Do I need to justify that? Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Rogers, Brady, Murray, Herbert, Prescott, Stafford, wilson are all better than Carr. And possibly Jackson as well. He's good, but he is no where near the caliber of Rodgers. So its not unreasonable to think that Adams historical productivity will still be great, but it will go down with Carr, and Robinson's would go up under Carr.

And it doesnt have to be Olave. It could be any productive players that they draft in the first 2 rounds and expect to be a starter or big contributor. It could be a LB. It could be a DT. It could be an OT.

Robinson is not a stretch the field receiver. He's not in Adams class! Carr threw for 4800 yards last season and that's without having Waller being healthy and missing a third of the season along with Ruggs getting arrested and released. If health isn't an issue, Carr is going to have an outstanding 2022 season and will be a MVP candidate..

It's funny, when Gruden and Mayock were in place, you were "sunshine and lollipops" about the Raiders, while I was the "Debbie Downer". It now looks like our roles are reverse with this new regime of McDaniels and Ziegler.

Peter King's article that includes an excerpt about the Adams trade and the thinking behind it from McDaniels and Ziegler's perspective.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ia-peter-king/

[I C U Ms Frenchie]

I am very excited about this team. Where am I Debbie Downer? If they fix RT this team is going to win 12 games. More if there are more defensive additions to come. I cant wait to see Adams in action. I criticize 2 things. They overpaid for Adams, and I would have preferred quantity. And like Ive already said, if they find the cap space to fix their other needs, then I will change my opinion about the overpay. And Ive said Carr is not a top tier qb, and that criticism is not on the new regime. Not only that Ive been criticizing Carr's shortcomings before the new regime was even hired. Do you feel that Carr is a top 5? If you do, tell me who on that list I made that he is better than. If Carr would stop putting the ball on the ground, and if he starts producing in the redzone and if he starts making a few plays when he scrambles, then will he be a top tier qb. Is that an unreasonable position?