2021 MiLB news and notes...

[sjb23]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

That's hilarious. I didn't even notice Reese had included Brett Gardner in that group, lol

Nice catch.

[ymike673]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

https://nypost.com/2021/02/21/yankee...ominguez-hype/

“I don’t really think it’s fair,’’ Kevin (sr director of player development) Reese said. “He’s super-talented, [but] he hasn’t played a game here yet, so it’s hard to help him manage those expectations because he’s not gonna show up tomorrow and perform like a Mike Trout or Aaron Judge or Brett Gardner.”

I don't know. I sure hope once he takes the field Jasson is better than our 38 year old 4th outfielder.

[Jace]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Definitely agree that putting Brett Gardner and Mike Trout in the same sentence is hilarious and absurd, and that we hope Dominguez is better than 2021 Gardner.

That said... Gardner does have ~40 career WAR, about the same as Paul O'Neill / Jorge Posada (~50 WAR is like the minimum to be in a HOF conversation, I think 60 WAR usually gets you in). A 40-WAR-in-Yankee-uniform career from Dominguez is higher than what you'd project for someone who hasn't played an MiLB game, no matter how talented.

Obviously we hope his peak is higher than Gardner's, just shows how long the road ahead of him is.

[geodork]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Actually, each player is quite different. Maybe he meant it as a tiered thing? Trout is a generational talent, Judge is a top 25 overall talent, and Gardner has been a championship team level starter for his career.

Maybe he meant "Lets pump the breaks on calling him the next Trout, let alone the next Judge, hell, he might not even be the next Gardner."

But where is the fun in any of that?

Also, Judge is much closer to Gardner than Trout. Except for injuries. Judge is much more like Trout when it comes to injuries.

[sjb23]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Maybe he meant "Lets pump the breaks on calling him the next Trout, let alone the next Judge, hell, he might not even be the next Gardner."

Hell he might even be the next Brien Taylor.

[sjb23]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Obviously we hope his peak is higher than Gardner's, just shows how long the road ahead of him is.

A very realistic take.

[Yankyfan]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Yanks should scoop up Keury Mella . A Milb deal would add a power arm who could be nice find.

[Yankyfan]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Vargas coming on strong!!
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...e-is-electric/

[Stache Fan]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Given 2 choices:

1 - Jasson puts up Gardner’s numbers in his corresponding age seasons
2 - Jasson’s current level of ceiling/uncertainty

Every single baseball executive chooses 1

[False1]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Given 2 choices:

1 - Jasson puts up Gardner’s numbers in his corresponding age seasons
2 - Jasson’s current level of ceiling/uncertainty

Every single baseball executive chooses 1

Really? The Yankees gave a 17 year old Dominguez $5.1MM with the hope that in 4 to 5 years he might become Brett Gardner?

I think they're playing roulette, not Pai Gow. I don't think they drop that money on a kid like that if not for his ceiling specifically. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

[sjb23]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Really? The Yankees gave a 17 year old Dominguez $5.1MM with the hope that in 4 to 5 years he might become Brett Gardner?

I think they're playing roulette, not Pai Gow. I don't think they drop that money on a kid like that if not for his ceiling specifically. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

Kind of off-topic, but does the scout that helped get Dominguez signed get a piece of that $5.1M?

10% "commission" would be $510K. Yeah, I'd certainly play up the 5-tool thing and float Mike Trout's name when I turned in my scouting report.

Having said that, if there's a #2 starter available via trade for Dominguez, I'd re-invest that $5.1M, simply because it's probably easier to find another young 5-tool OF prospect than it is to find a #2 MLB starter.

[False1]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Kind of off-topic, but does the scout that helped get Dominguez signed get a piece of that $5.1M?

10% "commission" would be $510K. Yeah, I'd certainly play up the 5-tool thing and float Mike Trout's name when I turned in my scouting report.

Having said that, if there's a #2 starter available via trade for Dominguez, I'd re-invest that $5.1M, simply because it's probably easier to find another young 5-tool OF prospect than it is to find a #2 MLB starter.

I'm pretty sure they're just salaried, and amazingly poorly at that. I remember years ago their were even lawsuits by scouts claiming they were not being paid minimum wage or overtime. But, I could be wrong or that may have changed. I would say though that overhyping a player to try and gain some commission would probably be a good way to shorten your career.

This is the old bird in the hand situation. Yes, a #2 starter has tremendous value and it's value you can capitalize on now. But, it will cost you more than an 18 year old prospect, and you're more than likely adding significant luxury tax considerations and/or only getting a short period of team control in a trade like that.

The allure of Ja$$on is that if he can approximate his ceiling you have something FAR more valuable than a typical starting pitching target both in terms of his everyday/positional value but even more so because of the long term cost control. That's a player you can build a ballclub around. Or, in another year or two, if he continues to develop as expected it's possible you could build a package around him for a #1.

[dpbddd99]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Article touting Vargas' potential.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...e-is-electric/

[Stache Fan]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

Really? The Yankees gave a 17 year old Dominguez $5.1MM with the hope that in 4 to 5 years he might become Brett Gardner?

I think they're playing roulette, not Pai Gow. I don't think they drop that money on a kid like that if not for his ceiling specifically. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

18 WAR over his cost controlled years for a $5M investment? Oh yeah.

[False1]

Re: 2021 MiLB news and notes...

18 WAR over his cost controlled years for a $5M investment? Oh yeah.

Actually I think you're understating the WAR for Gardner, no? I think it was 21.7 fWAR over his cost-controlled years (before he became a FA). And, that includes a lost season in 2012 due to an elbow injury. So I get your point, and I love Gardner and am in no way trying to demean his value. Especially in terms of ROI.

But, while getting that same production out of a $5.1MM signing bonus (plus whatever salary he'd accrue over his 7 cost controlled years) for Dominguez would be a good investment overall, I disagree that every GM would lock that in now rather than tolerate the risk/reward of seeing whether he can approximate his ceiling.

Outfielders that can be relied upon for 2.5 - 4ish WAR seasons (with an occasional boost) are valuable, but they can be found through more traditional means. Of the 53 OF that qualified in 2019, 29 had at least 2.5 WAR (more than half), and others were on pace to exceed that baseline on a rate basis.

What is hard to find are OF that can give you 6 - 8 WAR production, and the unicorns that give you 10 WAR production. When you can promote guys with that type of ability during cost-controlled seasons, it has the ability to alter the trajectory of a franchise in a way a Brett Gardner cannot.

Again, if Ja$$on becomes a Gardner-equivalent OFer by WAR then the Yankees made good and then some on their investment. I just disagree that 100% of GMs would sign up for that now. I bet many would actually let it ride and hope that he can be something more special.