Covid-19

[billyhoyle]

Re: Covid-19

Here's a story about CA from today's paper.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...tion-confusion

Personally, there are plenty of older adults who are having a very hard time getting vaccine appointments. Some of the larger vaccine sites (like Dodger stadium) have had to close from time to time, because of lack of vaccines. I work for a school. I got my first vaccine. My 71 year old mom got the first appointment I could find for her... after a few days of trying. The appointment is in March. Kaiser Permanante, (who is the medical provider of most of my family) is still only vaccinating people aged 75 and over, and is supposed to be reaching out to them as vaccines become available. My mom would have continued to wait for Kaiser to contact her if I hadn't jumped in and got her an appointment outside of Kaiser. Most of my family that are over 65 are still unvaccinated for various reasons. The rollout here in CA sucks.

California as a whole has administered a similar % of doses compared to states like NJ. Unlike NJ, they haven’t expanded beyond the over 65 population. This means that more people at risk are getting appointments in CA compared to NJ and you know that even if your family is waiting until March for the appointment, they aren’t being skipped by people less at risk. The state can’t just make new doses appear given the limited supply, but they are making sure the right people get it, with the distribution happening efficiently. In terms of Kaiser, I think they have been a bit slower than some of the other health systems-not sure why-maybe they have more seniors in their network. But them still being 75+ is a good thing if they don’t yet have the doses to expand.

NY has also done a good job, especially in NYC. The Yankee Stadium site is awesome.

[b-ball-lunachick]

Re: Covid-19

I don't understand how they are expanding who can get the vaccine when they don't have enough doses/appts for the people in the original groups ...despite trying, still can't get Alex a vaccine - a teacher who is going back next week, nor my 80 yr old mom with COPD.

This is just depressing...and now this perfect storm of mutations, ugh...
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/...red-in-us.html

[jlw1980]

Re: Covid-19

Meanwhile I'm eligible in *Pennsylvania* because I'm considered a government contractor who works there, which is...a generous interpretation of my job. I would never have dreamed of trying to get the shot there, though.

With your health issues, Ryan, I'd have no problem with you being one of the first to get it. In any state.

Spread in schools that open at reduced density has been low. The point is that even if there is a small amount of spread in the school, if the elderly population is vaccinated, there will be next to no societal medical consequence. Covid for a 30 year old teacher is the flu. Covid for a 60 year old teacher is a life or death event. The most important thing in the vaccine rollout is getting the people most likely to die from covid vaccinated as soon as possible.

I've personally seen this... not be the case. I've seen too many young, healthy people become very sick and die. Meanwhile my dad, who is not only 72 years old but diabetic, was barely sick. It was a bad cold for him. Thankfully. I was terrified that he would die of it. My mom is younger and healthier, but had it worse than he did. Even she wasn't that sick. Neither ever had to go to the ER. I feel so lucky. So, so lucky.

There are so many factors.

[billyhoyle]

Re: Covid-19

With your health issues, Ryan, I'd have no problem with you being one of the first to get it. In any state.



I've personally seen this... not be the case. I've seen too many young, healthy people become very sick and die. Meanwhile my dad, who is not only 72 years old but diabetic, was barely sick. It was a bad cold for him. Thankfully. I was terrified that he would die of it. My mom is younger and healthier, but had it worse than he did. Even she wasn't that sick. Neither ever had to go to the ER. I feel so lucky. So, so lucky.

There are so many factors.

Right, it is dangerous for some in their 30s, and some in their 70s survive. but just look at the CFR breakdown by age. It is safe for younger teachers to work with proper PPE and social distancing if the older population vaccinated. I’m not saying young people should assume they are immune, but if the entire elderly population were vaccinated, COVID-19 would essentially become 2009 swine flu, which wasn’t bad despite infecting 80% of the world because the older population had immunity from years earlier.

[billyhoyle]

Re: Covid-19

I don't understand how they are expanding who can get the vaccine when they don't have enough doses/appts for the people in the original groups ...despite trying, still can't get Alex a vaccine - a teacher who is going back next week, nor my 80 yr old mom with COPD.

This is just depressing...and now this perfect storm of mutations, ugh...
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/...red-in-us.html

NJ is the absolute worst. Which part of the state are you having problems in?

[Maynerd]

Re: Covid-19

There are so many factors.

Indeed. And, many of those factors are impossible to quantify. However, the risk to someone older (60? 65? 70?) seems significantly higher than someone in their 30s. [By risk, I'm referring to the risk of serious illness or death, not the risk of exposure to the virus.]

So, it would seem to make sense to provide higher priority to those at greater risk. No?

[RYMASTER or Ryan_Yankees]

Re: Covid-19

Indeed. And, many of those factors are impossible to quantify. However, the risk to someone older (60? 65? 70?) seems significantly higher than someone in their 30s. [By risk, I'm referring to the risk of serious illness or death, not the risk of exposure to the virus.]

So, it would seem to make sense to provide higher priority to those at greater risk. No?

i am 33 and at a higher risk than lots of people in their 60s and 70s. A myasthenic crisis from COVID could kill me. Allowing younger people with health issues to get vaccinated is not a bad thing, and disabled people shouldn't die due to intentional government incompetence.

[Maynerd]

Re: Covid-19

i am 33 and at a higher risk than lots of people in their 60s and 70s. A myasthenic crisis from COVID could kill me. Allowing younger people with health issues to get vaccinated is not a bad thing, and disabled people shouldn't die due to intentional government incompetence.

I fully agree. Certain comorbidities ARE quantifiable, and should absolutely be taken into consideration.

I'm a generally healthy 64-year-old. Who's at greater risk, you or me? I'd say that you are, by a significant measure. Please step in front of me in line.

I'm saying that a generally healthy 30-year-old teacher is at higher risk to exposure if classrooms are opened, but at a lower risk of serious illness.

[b-ball-lunachick]

Re: Covid-19

NJ is the absolute worst. Which part of the state are you having problems in?

Central - -some of my family in Middlesex and some of us in Monmouth. i've had friends get called in Mercer this week...we even registered in Burlington today - I don't think I've ever been there but at this point, trying anything...i read today that Monmouth's deliveries have been delayed by weather in the South..maybe it will clear up soon...

are you in NJ?

[billyhoyle]

Re: Covid-19

i am 33 and at a higher risk than lots of people in their 60s and 70s. A myasthenic crisis from COVID could kill me. Allowing younger people with health issues to get vaccinated is not a bad thing, and disabled people shouldn't die due to intentional government incompetence.

It completely depends on the condition. Many of the co-morbidities have a relatively small increase in risk for death. I'll list some of them below:

Diabetes: 2-4 times increased risk. Smoking: 1-2 fold increased risk Asthma: minimal increased risk Cancer: ~2 fold increase Obesity: ~2 fold increase

By contrast, compared to somebody 18-29, being 50-64 years old increases your risk of death 30X, 65-74 increases your risk 90X, 75-84 increase your risk 220X, 85+ increases it 630X.

I do not know what condition you have, but the majority of conditions that fall into the "at risk" category that states like NJ are prioritizing are relatively small increases in risk compared to even being 50+. If you are between 50 and 64 with diabetes, then your risk becomes 2-4 *30, so you fall more into the risk group of the 65-74 group. But the general point is that age is a significantly more important risk factor than almost any comorbidity, and the most simple and effective way to administer the vaccine is to work your way back in age starting with 75+. If your condition has a risk factor comparable to age, I'd totally support prioritizing it with the elderly-I'm just pissed at the number of conditions that states like NJ have included in their rollout, making those at the most risk (seniors) struggle to find appointments.

Central - -some of my family in Middlesex and some of us in Monmouth. i've had friends get called in Mercer this week...we even registered in Burlington today - I don't think I've ever been there but at this point, trying anything...i read today that Monmouth's deliveries have been delayed by weather in the South..maybe it will clear up soon...

are you in NJ?

I have very elderly family in Bergen. Getting an appointment was impossible. The solution was to just walk into a hospital giving vaccine without an appointment and ask for one of the end of day extra doses. Not sure how reproducible this strategy is-I think many of the nurses administering the vaccine in NJ realize how screwed up their system is and accommodate some of the very elderly walk ins. Or maybe this was just very good luck.

I fully agree. Certain comorbidities ARE quantifiable, and should absolutely be taken into consideration.

I'm a generally healthy 64-year-old. Who's at greater risk, you or me? I'd say that you are, by a significant measure. Please step in front of me in line.

I'm saying that a generally healthy 30-year-old teacher is at higher risk to exposure if classrooms are opened, but at a lower risk of serious illness.

It depends on the specific co-morbidity. A 64 year old will be at significantly greater risk than a 33 year old with almost any co-morbidity (even cancer and diabetes). I'm not saying this is the case for all co-morbidities-I just haven't seen one in the literature that is comparable to age.

[Maynerd]

Re: Covid-19

By contrast, compared to somebody 18-29, being 50-64 years old increases your risk of death 30X, 65-74 increases your risk 90X, 75-84 increase your risk 220X, 85+ increases it 630X.

Age groupings like this are fine to make histograms, or to show relative categories, but they're a terrible tool for risk prioritization. I'm 64. In five months, I'll turn 65. My risk will not suddenly go from 30X to 90X overnight. But, my prioritization for the vaccine is based on these arbitrary groupings. Someone born six months earlier than I was is seen to be in significantly greater risk. This is obviously not the case.

[JL25and3]

Age groupings like this are fine to make histograms, or to show relative categories, but they're a terrible tool for risk prioritization. I'm 64. In five months, I'll turn 65. My risk will not suddenly go from 30X to 90X overnight. But, my prioritization for the vaccine is based on these arbitrary groupings. Someone born six months earlier than I was is seen to be in significantly greater risk. This is obviously not the case.

They're arbitrary, to be sure, particularly at that sort of micro level. Obviously, your risk doesn't triple overnight - any more than your ability to drink responsibly improves on your 21st birthday, or your wisdom in entering contracts changes on your 18th. But arbitrary categories have to be drawn unless you want to assess the risk of 350 million people on a case-by-case basis. Actuarial tables are really the only tool we have.

[Maynerd]

Re: Covid-19

They're arbitrary, to be sure, particularly at that sort of micro level. Obviously, your risk doesn't triple overnight - any more than your ability to drink responsibly improves on your 21st birthday, or your wisdom in entering contracts changes on your 18th. But arbitrary categories have to be drawn unless you want to assess the risk of 350 million people on a case-by-case basis. Actuarial tables are really the only tool we have.

I understand that. Perhaps, 15 year groupings are a little lazy. It sounds as if 5-year groupings might be a better risk assessment tool. It also sounds like certain co-morbidities, or certain professions (30-year old teachers) are being inappropriately prioritized. But, this won't have a significant effect on the timetable, in the grand scheme of things.

I will remain a mask-wearing, social-distancing, group-avoiding, responsible person. I have control over all those things. I'll get the shot when it becomes available to my age group, or my age increases to a different range, whichever comes first.

[jlw1980]

Re: Covid-19

They're arbitrary, to be sure, particularly at that sort of micro level. Obviously, your risk doesn't triple overnight - any more than your ability to drink responsibly improves on your 21st birthday, or your wisdom in entering contracts changes on your 18th. But arbitrary categories have to be drawn unless you want to assess the risk of 350 million people on a case-by-case basis. Actuarial tables are really the only tool we have.

You're arbitrary.

[Tyler Durden]

Re: Covid-19

I gotta say, I'm disappointed in the Biden administration largely leaving the distribution up to the individual states to manage.