Covid-19

[Texsahara]

I would think the fact that they are calling for a pause would actually ease the minds of people who are on the fence over this vaccine's safety (the non-conspiracy nuts), given that it shows an overabundance of caution.

The problem is not the pause and the investigation as much as stupid people. I don't have a solution for that.

That's me quoting me.

[Tyler Durden]

That's me quoting me.

I don't think people who are on the fence about getting the vaccine for reasons other than wacko internet conspiracies are stupid. Ill-informed and scared, perhaps. I think they can be reached.

I don't have a solution for the conspiracy true believers, other than maybe continued anecdotal evidence of family and friends getting vaxxed and being fine afterward.

[jlw1980]

I'm not ready to eat inside, luckily I won't have to worry about it until October as it's al fresco season again.

It's starting to get too hot to eat outside here. Mornings and most evenings are still nice, but not for much longer.

[jlw1980]

Should I be happy or upset that I got the J&J vaccine?

Happy. Being vaccinated is a gift. <3

[JDPNYY]

Happy. Being vaccinated is a gift. <3

I am. I was just getting the conversation started up in my own weirdo way.

[YFIB]

I would think the fact that they are calling for a pause would actually ease the minds of people who are on the fence over this vaccine's safety (the non-conspiracy nuts), given that it shows an overabundance of caution.

I'd guess that this has heightened the perception of risk among most people. If you asked, I'd guess that most would think the risk is higher than oral contraceptives, for instance, which isn't close to being true.

[YankeeFan1421]

It’s very possible that there is more to this J&J scenario than I’m aware of or understanding...

but we are closing in on one out of every 500 Americans dead from Covid.

The 7 million who were vaxxed with J&J had one fatality.

if one out of 500 of those 7 million had died from covid, that would amount to 14,00 deaths. Suppose 90% of those were elderly or sickly anyway...that’s still 1400 dead out of that group.

I realize there are ethics and best practices involved in medicine but from a purely statistical standpoint, how does pausing this make any sense?

[Texsahara]

It’s very possible that there is more to this J&J scenario than I’m aware of or understanding...

but we are closing in on one out of every 500 Americans dead from Covid.

The 7 million who were vaxxed with J&J had one fatality.

if one out of 500 of those 7 million had died from covid, that would amount to 14,00 deaths. Suppose 90% of those were elderly or sickly anyway...that’s still 1400 dead out of that group.

I realize there are ethics and best practices involved in medicine but from a purely statistical standpoint, how does pausing this make any sense?

The more I've thought about this, the more I come to the conclusion that it is lose/lose. They had to make this news public That is the core of the problem but there was no alternative. If they made it public, didn't pause, and said they would continue to study it as people got vaccinated, there would be an outcry. They make it public and pause to look at it and there is an outcry. I think it's important that the pros understand what is happening and that they swiftly communicate the symptoms and treatment to other medical professionals. The end result is going to be some people are going to be more reluctant to get the vaccine while others are going to be unchanged about it, and still others will be less reluctant knowing that there is an abundance of caution.

[Maynerd]

I realize there are ethics and best practices involved in medicine but from a purely statistical standpoint, how does pausing this make any sense?

There are 6 potential cases of blood clots (all women) following the J&J vaccine, after over 6 million doses have been distributed. That's a 1:1,000,000 chance, or 0.000001%.

Women are more predisposed to get blood clots, such that 0.0004% of women will have a blood clot in any given year. Hormonal birth control raises the risk of blood clots to .0007% per year.

Consider the math. If 50% of the people who have received the J&J vaccine were women (3M), then 1,200 could be expected to suffer from blood clots simply due to their gender (blood clots being sexist).

And we're pumping the brakes on a life-saving vaccine due to SIX instances of blood clots? The virus has a risk of about one in a thousand. The J&J vaccine has a risk of one in a million. I will gladly accept that 1 : 1,000,000 risk to eliminate the 1 : 1,000 risk.

They just unnecessarily threw fuel on the fire that already was smoldering amongst the anti-vaxxers, the conspiracy theorists, and the blinder-wearing Trumpists.

[JL25and3]

There are 6 potential cases of blood clots (all women) following the J&J vaccine, after over 6 million doses have been distributed. That's a 1:1,000,000 chance, or 0.000001%.

Women are more predisposed to get blood clots, such that 0.0004% of women will have a blood clot in any given year. Hormonal birth control raises the risk of blood clots to .0007% per year.

Consider the math. If 50% of the people who have received the J&J vaccine were women (3M), then 1,200 could be expected to suffer from blood clots simply due to their gender (blood clots being sexist).

And we're pumping the brakes on a life-saving vaccine due to SIX instances of blood clots? The virus has a risk of about one in a thousand. The J&J vaccine has a risk of one in a million. I will gladly accept that 1 : 1,000,000 risk to eliminate the 1 : 1,000 risk.

They just unnecessarily threw fuel on the fire that already was smoldering amongst the anti-vaxxers, the conspiracy theorists, and the blinder-wearing Trumpists.

I don’t have a problem with the pause. The vaccines were rushed through the authorization process, so they should exercise an abundance of caution now, even if it turns out to be a surfeit. They’re not pulling the vaccine entirely, and I expect it will be back in a few days.

[Tyler Durden]

There are 6 potential cases of blood clots (all women) following the J&J vaccine, after over 6 million doses have been distributed. That's a 1:1,000,000 chance, or 0.000001%.

Women are more predisposed to get blood clots, such that 0.0004% of women will have a blood clot in any given year. Hormonal birth control raises the risk of blood clots to .0007% per year.

Consider the math. If 50% of the people who have received the J&J vaccine were women (3M), then 1,200 could be expected to suffer from blood clots simply due to their gender (blood clots being sexist).

And we're pumping the brakes on a life-saving vaccine due to SIX instances of blood clots? The virus has a risk of about one in a thousand. The J&J vaccine has a risk of one in a million. I will gladly accept that 1 : 1,000,000 risk to eliminate the 1 : 1,000 risk.

They just unnecessarily threw fuel on the fire that already was smoldering amongst the anti-vaxxers, the conspiracy theorists, and the blinder-wearing Trumpists.

Here's a fun exercise in playing devil's advocate: What if Trump was still president and the story broke about the administration knowing of potential blood clot cases with J&J but the distribution was not paused?

Like Tex said, it really is lose/lose.

[YankeePride1967]

I think the time to herd immunity was just lengthened considerably. Whether it was the correct call or not, a bunch of folks on the fence just moved to the no way category

[YFIB]

There are 6 potential cases of blood clots (all women) following the J&J vaccine, after over 6 million doses have been distributed. That's a 1:1,000,000 chance, or 0.000001%.

Women are more predisposed to get blood clots, such that 0.0004% of women will have a blood clot in any given year. Hormonal birth control raises the risk of blood clots to .0007% per year.

Consider the math. If 50% of the people who have received the J&J vaccine were women (3M), then 1,200 could be expected to suffer from blood clots simply due to their gender (blood clots being sexist).

And we're pumping the brakes on a life-saving vaccine due to SIX instances of blood clots? The virus has a risk of about one in a thousand. The J&J vaccine has a risk of one in a million. I will gladly accept that 1 : 1,000,000 risk to eliminate the 1 : 1,000 risk.

They just unnecessarily threw fuel on the fire that already was smoldering amongst the anti-vaxxers, the conspiracy theorists, and the blinder-wearing Trumpists.

Yeah, the problem I have is that there's no context being provided. The risk is far more substantial with oral contraceptives. Other medicines also have far more prevalent risks. I find it hard to believe that this is going to make anyone who was on the fence more likely to get vaccinated, but fully believe that others will be less likely.

[Maynerd]

Yeah, the problem I have is that there's no context being provided. The risk is far more substantial with oral contraceptives.

Exactly. Using the FDA's logic, we should be put oral contraceptives on 'pause.' But, that's not gonna happen.

I find it hard to believe that this is going to make anyone who was on the fence more likely to get vaccinated, but fully believe that others will be less likely.

I fear that will be a LOT of others, and they'll use the Johnson and Johnson 'pause' as their excuse to avoid ANY shot. If they were just hurting themselves, I'd be fine with it, but their decisions have a societal impact.

[ClownPickle]

Forget the vaccine. If you told me only 6 people out of 6 million got blood clots, I'd be surprised. Is it possible to have a blood clot and not know?

Just wondering if they are pulling it because they believe the real number to be a little higher.