Covid-19

[jlw1980]

:clapswildly:

:takesbow:

[Maynerd]

In case anyone was wondering, today I reported the physician who made sexist comments at work last Friday. My boss is going to take it higher up. She said that this was not the first time that this man had made similar comments, and was glad that I reported it. She knew who it was before I said his name. I'm glad that I reported the sexist pig.

Good for you. Standing by silently because you don't want to rock the boat is contributing to the continuation of an unacceptable standard.

What's disconcerting is your statement that they knew who you were talking about before mentioning his name. That indicates (to me, at least) that they have already accepted the behavior. Good luck.

[trapper700]

I work in healthcare. I firmly advocate playing it safe. But we also still need to represent data appropriately. We are talking about this on a message board - not making healthcare recommendations.

I'd argue that nitpicking over a fact like you pointed out is still doing more harm than good. What does it matter if the study only included hospitalized patients when CP said they were using that as part of their basis for continuing to mask up? CP was right that there's still evidence of vaccinated spreading disease. By pointing it out, it made it seem like you are arguing for the study results to be ignored because it wasn't the "right" population. We might not be making general healthcare recommendations, but even personal decisions like whether or not you should wear a mask are going to be affecting other people whether we want to or not. What point were you trying to make for correcting them?

That said, it's good that at least some people who are making decisions on actual policy are treating the study as if it was every breakthrough infection that acted the same way and not just those who were hospitalized. Some school districts across the country used it as a basis for mask mandates in classrooms for all students and staff regardless of vaccination status.

[trapper700]

Trapper, is this ever going to end, in your opinion? I've given myself hope for a year-and-a-half by telling myself that the 1918 flu pandemic ended, even though the virus is still with us today. It really feels hopeless right now. Like, this is no way to live forever. You know?

I've been very pessimistic on the outlook about a return to pre-COVID life. We're having issues controlling just the delta variant right now and we haven't even hit the peak yet. What happens when it mutates again so that another even more virulent variant takes its place?

The lambda variant, for example, already has some mutations that escape the current antibodies that are increased as a response to vaccination; where even a third shot of Pfizer/Moderna might not help that much because it would just increase the same antibodies that aren't as capable of neutralizing the new variants. It seems like we're going to be having multiple waves worldwide on the regular, and we are just waiting to see how the virus itself responds to environmental pressure to mutate. Most of the current mutations and the vaccines themselves, target the spike protein but there are other accessory proteins that COVID could eventually select for in its mutations, such as ORF6 and ORF7.

There are also other ways to reduce the R0, such as lockdowns and masking up. We've already been told that another lockdown isn't happening and there's a lot of local governments saying that there will be no mask mandate either. The vaccine would probably also need to be mandatory for all citizens, because you still wouldn't be able to reach the levels required for herd immunity. Without all those, I don't think we'll ever be returning to "normal." And because this disease doesn't just affect the US, the rest of the world would also have to do the same things, otherwise it's just going to keep mutating to evade our immunity.

[jlw1980]

I've been very pessimistic on the outlook about a return to pre-COVID life. We're having issues controlling just the delta variant right now and we haven't even hit the peak yet. What happens when it mutates again so that another even more virulent variant takes its place?

The lambda variant, for example, already has some mutations that escape the current antibodies that are increased as a response to vaccination; where even a third shot of Pfizer/Moderna might not help that much because it would just increase the same antibodies that aren't as capable of neutralizing the new variants. It seems like we're going to be having multiple waves worldwide on the regular, and we are just waiting to see how the virus itself responds to environmental pressure to mutate. Most of the current mutations and the vaccines themselves, target the spike protein but there are other accessory proteins that COVID could eventually select for in its mutations, such as ORF6 and ORF7.

There are also other ways to reduce the R0, such as lockdowns and masking up. We've already been told that another lockdown isn't happening and there's a lot of local governments saying that there will be no mask mandate either. The vaccine would probably also need to be mandatory for all citizens, because you still wouldn't be able to reach the levels required for herd immunity. Without all those, I don't think we'll ever be returning to "normal." And because this disease doesn't just affect the US, the rest of the world would also have to do the same things, otherwise it's just going to keep mutating to evade our immunity.

Are you ID? I can't recall, sorry.

I know it's a coronavirus and not a flu virus, but the last pandemic ended after a couple of years. Why wouldn't this do so, as well? I'm not a scientist or physician, so I have to ask others this stuff. I just am trying to hold on to... something. Anything, really.

[trapper700]

Are you ID? I can't recall, sorry.

I know it's a coronavirus and not a flu virus, but the last pandemic ended after a couple of years. Why wouldn't this do so, as well? I'm not a scientist or physician, so I have to ask others this stuff. I just am trying to hold on to... something. Anything, really.

I'm internal medicine

The reason why it's different from any previous flu is because of the R0 of covid and how it's exponentially more contagious than the flu ever was. The 1918 swine flu epidemic had an R0 of somewhere around 2.5. When swine flu came back in 2009, it was only 1.5 because of benefits of modern medicine like vaccines and antivirals. Seasonal flu is somewhere between 1 and 2. As I said previously, the R0 for the delta variant of COVID is estimated to be at around 7 or 8.

You can calculate the threshold required for herd immunity using the R0 by using the formula 1 - 1/R0. (because R0 * s [the susceptible population] < 1 [herd immunity])

So for the 2009 swine flu with an R0 of 1.5, we only needed 33% of the population to have either gotten natural immunity from getting sick or vaccination. So this is why I said delta variant required 87.5% of the total population (not just adults, also children) to have either been vaccinated or get the disease and have natural immunity. What is throwing it off, though, is that because of half-measures from the different health organizations and governments around the world, the virus is also mutating much faster than expected, so we're seeing some variants escape natural immunity/vaccination anyway.

I should also state that using this formula requires the total susceptible population to be every human being, not just 12 years old and above. So any vaccination percentages we see that only cite the current eligible 12+ y/o population, is an even lower value for the purposes of achieving herd immunity.

[YFIB]

I'd argue that nitpicking over a fact like you pointed out is still doing more harm than good. What does it matter if the study only included hospitalized patients when CP said they were using that as part of their basis for continuing to mask up? CP was right that there's still evidence of vaccinated spreading disease. By pointing it out, it made it seem like you are arguing for the study results to be ignored because it wasn't the "right" population. We might not be making general healthcare recommendations, but even personal decisions like whether or not you should wear a mask are going to be affecting other people whether we want to or not. What point were you trying to make for correcting them?

That said, it's good that at least some people who are making decisions on actual policy are treating the study as if it was every breakthrough infection that acted the same way and not just those who were hospitalized. Some school districts across the country used it as a basis for mask mandates in classrooms for all students and staff regardless of vaccination status.

You're jumping to some conclusions here. I went to the actual study because I am genuinely interested, and pointed out that a particular conclusion was a bit of a leap. It's a huge jump to say that I was arguing for it to be ignored.

Bigger picture, I don't think the challenges we're having with mask-wearing have much to do with science or viral load measurements.

[RhodyYanksFan]

Fun fact: Ted Cruz’s kids go to a $30K/year private school where students are REQUIRED to wear masks and the school does contact tracing. Will he pull his kids out of this oppressive establishment?

E8c2JyJXMAA6Bss?format=jpg&amp;name=medium.jpg

[Maynerd]

Will he pull his kids out of this oppressive establishment?

That has about the same probability as Nancy Pelosi abiding by restrictions at her hair salon.

[Texsahara]

That has about the same probability as Nancy Pelosi abiding by restrictions at her hair salon.

that's a really good whataboutism. high five.

[Yankee Tripper]

That has about the same probability as Nancy Pelosi abiding by restrictions at her hair salon.

I wasn’t aware that Nancy going to a hair salon would endanger kids in school. Thank you for bringing that to my attention.

[Texsahara]

Fun fact: Ted Cruz’s kids go to a $30K/year private school where students are REQUIRED to wear masks and the school does contact tracing. Will he pull his kids out of this oppressive establishment?

When his constituents were freezing, he took his kids to Cancun. #TedFirst

[Maynerd]

that's a really good whataboutism. high five.

I apologize. Pointing out that a politician might be two-faced is only permitted if that politician is a Republican.

[Texsahara]

I apologize. Pointing out that a politician might be two-faced is only permitted if that politician is a Republican.

Okay then. Glad we settled that.

[YankeePride1967]

Hillary’s emails!!!