Covid-19

[Texsahara]

Which is not even the same thing as both sides. You use these lines so much here that they've become pretty hackneyed.

Mmmhmm. Everything is the same. Why not me?

[False1]

I agree....there is zero reason why a pandemic should be overly political...or at least there SHOULD be zero reason.

Agreed.

But go back about three years ago and we had a buffoon randomly musing about injecting bleach and taking it upon himself to name the virus 'the China flu' and calling it a hoax (at least publicly; privately he said he thought it was very dangerous according to his recorded conversation with Bob Woodward.).

Agreed, but don't see how this applies to the merits or lack thereof then or now around a lab leak theory.

It was obviously lost on most of his desperate supporters how dumb all of those things are. In turn, moderates and left leaning folks began summarily dismissing anything he had to say, including the possibility of a lab leak as the origin, because, well, if Trump says it it's either wrong (usually) or, often, right for the wrong reasons. Pretty sure had the virus originated in, say, Russia he wouldn't have said a peep about it being a lab leak and probably would have thanked Putin for...something.

Relevance?

With a grown up in the Oval, be it Biden, Obama, W Bush, Clinton or HW Bush, the virus likely would have been confronted with much more logic, clarity and good faith, and the possibility that it was caused (or spread) via a lab leak wouldn't have been nearly as political.

I would have preferred that if this were to occur there was a better POTUS in office, but again question the relevance.

I just find it comical that so many who believe it was a hoax and no big deal ALSO blame China and think it was either an accidental or nefarious act that caused it.

Who are these "so manys" you keep referring to? I'd like in on the joke, I just can't find that target audience outside of some fringies.

[Texsahara]

But they've been trying for 3 years to figure out what animal passed COVID to humans, and they still don't know.

The last SARS outbreak, SARS-CoV, occurred in 2002. It took fourteen years to find the bat population where it most likely originated.

[False1]

OK, there are a lot of markets, which are well-known, repeatedly demonstrated sources of novel virus transmission. One of them is right there.

Except the wet market right there reportedly didn't sell bats or pangolins, yet the lab right there was working on this exact type of virology. And just speaking mathematically (not empirically, of course) the odds of this specific outbreak occurring in this specific wet market, versus one of tens if not hundreds of thousands across the planet, that just so happens to be a few hundred yards away from this lab, of which there are a handful on the planet, under these circumstances and conditions... what is the probability of that occurring?

[Texsahara]

Except the wet market right there reportedly didn't sell bats or pangolins, yet the lab right there was working on this exact type of virology. And just speaking mathematically (not empirically, of course) the odds of this specific outbreak occurring in this specific wet market, versus one of tens if not hundreds of thousands across the planet, that just so happens to be a few hundred yards away from this lab, of which there are a handful on the planet, under these circumstances and conditions... what is the probability of that occurring?

Come on now. They are a 40 minute drive apart. No need to exaggerate.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...a-57268111.amp

[JL25and3]

Except the wet market right there reportedly didn't sell bats or pangolins, yet the lab right there was working on this exact type of virology. And just speaking mathematically (not empirically, of course) the odds of this specific outbreak occurring in this specific wet market, versus one of tens if not hundreds of thousands across the planet, that just so happens to be a few hundred yards away from this lab, of which there are a handful on the planet, under these circumstances and conditions... what is the probability of that occurring?

If they’re close, I don’t see why the number of other markets matter. If I pull my car out of the driveway, what are the odds that it will come out on that particular street out of all the millions of streets in the country?

[False1]

Come on now. They are a 40 minute drive apart. No need to exaggerate.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...a-57268111.amp

Ah, I thought I'd read that they were closer. Doesn't change anything though. Both were smack dab in the midst of ground zero.

[False1]

If they’re close, I don’t see why the number of other markets matter. If I pull my car out of the driveway, what are the odds that it will come out on that particular street out of all the millions of streets in the country?

To me it just comes down to overlayed probabilities. The degree of coincidence here is just too high for me to accept.

If you pull your car out of the driveway and find a nail in your tire, could it be some random nail from the millions of nails that randomly end up in roadways? It could. But what if there was an Acme nail factory across the street that had been directly observed being careless in their handling of their product, and the brand of the nail in your tire was Acme and there were only a few dozen of those factories on Earth. It could still be possible that specific nail didn't come from that specific factory, but the odds of that being a coincidence really get implausible.

In terms of this pandemic, the event itself thank goodness is highly improbable. We have relatively few outbreaks of that scale over history. Then you'd have to accept that it was spillover, and from a wetmarket. That's a reasonable assumption in general. But then it would have to be from this particular wetmarket out of all the wet markets in the world, where they didn't sell bats or pangolin. Then you have to ignore the clear coverup by China. And most importantly ignore the fact that there was a lab with known protocol issues working on novel coronaviruses right in the same footprint. The compound effect of all those improbabilities leads me to believe that it was the simplest explanation; that it leaked from the lab.

I'm not saying I'm right, or that anyone who is putting their chips on natural spillover is ignoring some obvious truth. We will probably never know for sure. Again I will say that the issue was more around the shouting down of anyone who mentioned lab leak as a conspiracy theorist when there was no real evidence of spillover either.

[JL25and3]

To me it just comes down to overlayed probabilities. The degree of coincidence here is just too high for me to accept.

If you pull your car out of the driveway and find a nail in your tire, could it be some random nail from the millions of nails that randomly end up in roadways? It could. But what if there was an Acme nail factory across the street that had been directly observed being careless in their handling of their product, and the brand of the nail in your tire was Acme and there were only a few dozen of those factories on Earth. It could still be possible that specific nail didn't come from that specific factory, but the odds of that being a coincidence really get implausible.

In terms of this pandemic, the event itself thank goodness is highly improbable. We have relatively few outbreaks of that scale over history. Then you'd have to accept that it was spillover, and from a wetmarket. That's a reasonable assumption in general. But then it would have to be from this particular wetmarket out of all the wet markets in the world, where they didn't sell bats or pangolin. Then you have to ignore the clear coverup by China. And most importantly ignore the fact that there was a lab with known protocol issues working on novel coronaviruses right in the same footprint. The compound effect of all those improbabilities leads me to believe that it was the simplest explanation; that it leaked from the lab.

I'm not saying I'm right, or that anyone who is putting their chips on natural spillover is ignoring some obvious truth. We will probably never know for sure. Again I will say that the issue was more around the shouting down of anyone who mentioned lab leak as a conspiracy theorist when there was no real evidence of spillover either.

With a documented history of origin in markets.

OK, there’s an Acme nail factory across the street. There’s also a Home Depot a block away. Home Depot, Lowe’s, Ace - there are a million hardware megastores, and only a few factories. But there’s only one megastore right there, and that’s the significant factor. Having a million other irrelevant markets doesn’t affect the odds.

[HfxBob]

With a documented history of origin in markets.

OK, there’s an Acme nail factory across the street. There’s also a Home Depot a block away. Home Depot, Lowe’s, Ace - there are a million hardware megastores, and only a few factories. But there’s only one megastore right there, and that’s the significant factor. Having a million other irrelevant markets doesn’t affect the odds.

But there's only one lab in China that was testing bat coronaviruses, and it also happens to be close to the breakout.

Wouldn't it be pretty much a 50/50 chance between the two possibilities as a starting point?

[JL25and3]

But there's only one lab in China that was testing bat coronaviruses, and it also happens to be close to the breakout.

Wouldn't it be pretty much a 50/50 chance between the two possibilities as a starting point?

That sounds like a good starting estimate. After that, we have no info, only unsubstantiated guesses.

[HfxBob]

I'm not saying I'm right, or that anyone who is putting their chips on natural spillover is ignoring some obvious truth. We will probably never know for sure. Again I will say that the issue was more around the shouting down of anyone who mentioned lab leak as a conspiracy theorist when there was no real evidence of spillover either.

And the thing is, no one can deny that a lab leak is possible. You can't make a lab leak impossible.

[HfxBob]

We'd all feel more comfortable if COVID had a natural origin. If proof emerges that there was a lab leak and that the Chinese government deliberately covered it up, then what?

I think for a lot of people there's a natural and understandable bias toward the more comfortable explanation.

[Texsahara]

We'd all feel more comfortable if COVID had a natural origin. If proof emerges that there was a lab leak and that the Chinese government deliberately covered it up, then what?

I think for a lot of people there's a natural and understandable bias toward the more comfortable explanation.

I do not find a natural origin at all more comfortable. Lab leaks happen. When they do, steps are taken to prevent them from happening again. Deadly viruses jumping from animals to humans in the wild have no such mitigation.

[HfxBob]

I do not find a natural origin at all more comfortable. Lab leaks happen. When they do, steps are taken to prevent them. Deadly viruses jumping from animals to humans in the wild have no such mitigation.

I agree with that point, but the most uncomfortable part of the lab leak in this case is that we're dealing with a nuclear superpower whose leader has been saying some threatening things about the West and who responds very badly whenever the lab leak possibility is raised.