Covid-19

[JL25and3]

I agree with that point, but the most uncomfortable part of the lab leak in this case is that we're dealing with a nuclear superpower whose leader has been saying some threatening things about the West and who responds very badly whenever the lab leak possibility is raised.

Whether it was a lab leak or natural origin, the Chinese government’s behavior has been…unhelpful.

[Yankee Tripper]

I agree with that point, but the most uncomfortable part of the lab leak in this case is that we're dealing with a nuclear superpower whose leader has been saying some threatening things about the West and who responds very badly whenever the lab leak possibility is raised.

I’m not sure I see the relevance of China’s nuclear capability in relation to COVID unless you are suggesting nuking the disease like they did in the Last of Us, but that’s a sci fi show based on a video game.

[HfxBob]

I’m not sure I see the relevance of China’s nuclear capability in relation to COVID unless you are suggesting nuking the disease like they did in the Last of Us, but that’s a sci fi show based on a video game.

I thought the point was kind of obvious. The threat of war with China is not all that far-fetched.

[Yankee Tripper]

I thought the point was kind of obvious. The threat of war with China is not all that far-fetched.

Sure, but how is it related to COVID. It seems much more based on ideology differences and competing economic goals and who has control of what. COVID in relation to that sounds like a Red Herring.

[HfxBob]

Sure, but how is it related to COVID. It seems much more based on ideology differences and competing economic goals and who has control of what. COVID in relation to that sounds like a Red Herring.

The question is what do we do if it turns out that it COVID came from a lab leak and China covered it up? How can they be "held accountable", as the buzz phrase has it?

[Yankee Tripper]

The question is what do we do if it turns out that it COVID came from a lab leak and China covered it up? How can they be "held accountable", as the buzz phrase has it?

If you are asking them for for money, good luck with that.

[HfxBob]

If you are asking them for for money, good luck with that.

Good luck with getting anything from them, that's exactly what I mean. The usual means of punishment is economic sanctions. But what if their leader, who has been running off the rails a bit verbally of late, decides not to accept heavy sanctions?

[Texsahara]

The question is what do we do if it turns out that it COVID came from a lab leak and China covered it up? How can they be "held accountable", as the buzz phrase has it?

I would suggest proposing working together on ways to prevent this from happening again. "Holding them accountable" accomplishes nothing.

[False1]

With a documented history of origin in markets.

OK, there’s an Acme nail factory across the street. There’s also a Home Depot a block away. Home Depot, Lowe’s, Ace - there are a million hardware megastores, and only a few factories. But there’s only one megastore right there, and that’s the significant factor. Having a million other irrelevant markets doesn’t affect the odds.

Except the Acme nail factory makes Acme nails, and the Home Depot and Lowe's don't have Acme nails. And the parent company of Acme burns down the Home Depot - the one that could plausibly offer evidence that it wasn't Acme's fault if it was allowed to be investigated - and refuses any request to inspect the Acme factory.

I'm not trying to convince you John. I'm just explaining why I'm placing my bets where I am, and again just rejecting the nonsense of accusing anyone who believed then or now that lab leak was plausible was some conspiracy theorist.

[False1]

I do not find a natural origin at all more comfortable. Lab leaks happen. When they do, steps are taken to prevent them from happening again. Deadly viruses jumping from animals to humans in the wild have no such mitigation.

I presume Bob meant much more comfortable diplomatically. Which is undeniably true. The rage against China, particularly in 2020 when loved ones across the globe were dying and hope was strained and economies were shutting down, would have created immense pressure to seek retribution. This is a benefit of delaying root cause determination, for both the party that might be viewed as liable for the tragedy as well as the various parties that would be looked to for justice.

Also, I didn't dig deep on this admittedly but it doesn't appear that labs are really taking steps to prevent leaks from a review of a few articles. Even BSL-4s like the one in question.

All that said, I agree that individually I'd feel no better knowing that this was a natural event versus a human made one in terms of probability of a future event.

[JL25and3]

Except the Acme nail factory makes Acme nails, and the Home Depot and Lowe's don't have Acme nails. And the parent company of Acme burns down the Home Depot - the one that could plausibly offer evidence that it wasn't Acme's fault if it was allowed to be investigated - and refuses any request to inspect the Acme factory.

I'm not trying to convince you John. I'm just explaining why I'm placing my bets where I am, and again just rejecting the nonsense of accusing anyone who believed then or now that lab leak was plausible was some conspiracy theorist.

And I’m just saying that having many labs markets across the country is irrelevant to figuring the odds. It’s a variant of the Monty Hall problem.

[HfxBob]

And I’m just saying that having many labs markets across the country is irrelevant to figuring the odds. It’s a variant of the Monty Hall problem.

Your logic seems sound there. But the Chinese professor I quoted earlier said there were no bats being sold at that market, and it was unlikely there were any bats within hundreds of miles at the time. So what about that market made it a susceptible place for the virus to occur? The scientific part of it is above my pay grade, I freely admit that.

[HfxBob]

I presume Bob meant much more comfortable diplomatically. Which is undeniably true. The rage against China, particularly in 2020 when loved ones across the globe were dying and hope was strained and economies were shutting down, would have created immense pressure to seek retribution. This is a benefit of delaying root cause determination, for both the party that might be viewed as liable for the tragedy as well as the various parties that would be looked to for justice.

Also, I didn't dig deep on this admittedly but it doesn't appear that labs are really taking steps to prevent leaks from a review of a few articles. Even BSL-4s like the one in question.

All that said, I agree that individually I'd feel no better knowing that this was a natural event versus a human made one in terms of probability of a future event.

If we found out it was a human event, and that the virus was in fact engineered to make it more powerful, maybe it would shut down the "gain of function" research altogether. Maybe.

In the meantime, as you suggest, there doesn't appear to be any indication that COVID has done much to make an issue of the dangers inherent in these labs.

[HfxBob]

I would suggest proposing working together on ways to prevent this from happening again. "Holding them accountable" accomplishes nothing.

What you're saying is exactly right, and yet sounds dreadfully unrealistic. What a world.

[False1]

And I’m just saying that having many labs markets across the country is irrelevant to figuring the odds. It’s a variant of the Monty Hall problem.

It's really not irrelevant at all when you step back and look at the string of improbabilities that had to occur at the macro level and then get into the micro like the fact that this wet market didn't sell bats or pangolin. But we're going round and round here, so I'll drop it.