Covid-19

[JL25and3]

And this particular coronavirus just happens to be by far the deadliest we've ever seen.

And what were they working on in the Wuhan Institute of Virology at the time of the outbreak? Well, it just happened to be research on how to make bat coronaviruses more powerful. I think there are 3 labs in the whole world that do this kind of work.

And the outbreak just happened to be mere miles from one of those 3 places.

And the Chinese government just happens to not want anyone to investigate.

Sure, just a bunch of funny little coincidences.

The market is right there, too.

[HfxBob]

What would be really interesting to know is what new intelligence compelled the Department of Energy to change their position on the lab leak theory.

[HfxBob]

How is your preferred theory the Occam's razor scenario when both previous coronaviruses that jumped from animals to humans, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, were found to be natural transmissions? Seems like the opposite is equally plausible making Occam's razor a non-starter.

And this particular coronavirus just happens to be by far the deadliest we've ever seen.

And what were they working on in the Wuhan Institute of Virology at the time of the outbreak? Well, it just happened to be research on how to make bat coronaviruses more powerful. I think there are 3 labs in the whole world that do this kind of work.

And the outbreak just happened to be mere miles from one of those 3 places.

And the Chinese government just happens to not want anyone to investigate.

Sure, just a bunch of funny little coincidences.

[Yankee Tripper]

We shouldn't ignore the historical causes of past outbreaks of course, but things are different today in general and in this specific situation than when the Spanish Flu occurred or H1N1 event. First, we have advances in virology that make human's ability to craft powerful viruses today that couldn't be done in the past - intentionally or otherwise. Second, we have a lab allegedly working on gain/loss of function on novel coronaviruses at ground zero of this outbreak. Those are distinct differences that make this scenario different than its predecessors.

Not to mention that we have China refusing access to the international community to investigate, destroying evidence, effectively covering up the origin and lashing out at anyone and everyone who might opine on lab leak. If it was likely spillover and China was confident it wasn't lab originated, why not allow easier access? Also, if this is just like nearly every other virus throughout history jumping from animals to humans, why can a smoking gun supporting spillover not be found three years later?

I didn't mean to get a debate going over the definition of Occam's Razor. Strike that if it helps. The point was more around the pattern of shouting down dissenting viewpoints based on nothing, which in this case to me seemed a bridge too far given the circumstantial evidence supporting said viewpoint.

Sure the lab leak is plausible. And accidental far more likely than intentional.

It still doesn't change the fact that SARS virus or which COVID is in that family has in fact jumped species to human on more than one occasion and is still the most likely source.

Science isn't always easy. Finding the source of the jump is not always obvious or easily identified.

That said a lab leak as I already stated is plausible, just doesn't seem like the most likely source unless you can actually get China to admit it which I doubt they will.

[False1]

It boils down to the simplest answer is most likely the correct answer.

in this scenario there are 4 possible outcomes. Maybe more if you expand to the really crackpot theories.

1. like nearly every other virus throughout history, it jumped from one animal to humans through mutation.

2. Either through bad protocols or a careless researcher it was accidentally released from a lab in Wuhan where it was being studied.

3. it was intentionally released by the Chinese government on its own population to spread worldwide. The whys of this theory are where it tends to breakdown.

4. it was created by the US and planted in China to make them look bad. Again, the how’s and why’s is where this starts to breakdown.

so using Occam’s Razor, option 1 is most likely.

We shouldn't ignore the historical causes of past outbreaks of course, but things are different today in general and in this specific situation than when the Spanish Flu occurred or H1N1 event. First, we have advances in virology that make human's ability to craft powerful viruses today that couldn't be done in the past - intentionally or otherwise. Second, we have a lab allegedly working on gain/loss of function on novel coronaviruses at ground zero of this outbreak. Those are distinct differences that make this scenario different than its predecessors.

Not to mention that we have China refusing access to the international community to investigate, destroying evidence, effectively covering up the origin and lashing out at anyone and everyone who might opine on lab leak. If it was likely spillover and China was confident it wasn't lab originated, why not allow easier access? Also, if this is just like nearly every other virus throughout history jumping from animals to humans, why can a smoking gun supporting spillover not be found three years later?

I didn't mean to get a debate going over the definition of Occam's Razor. Strike that if it helps. The point was more around the pattern of shouting down dissenting viewpoints based on nothing, which in this case to me seemed a bridge too far given the circumstantial evidence supporting said viewpoint.

[False1]

I don’t entirely agree, except of course my sorrow about your relatives. The lab leak theory was originally pushed by Trump, Peter Navarro and others of that ilk, I believe, to use as a political weapon against China and others. The fact that it may also be true was irrelevant to them, as all truth was. It was pushed without evidence by pathological bullcrappers because it served their political purposes.

It didn’t just start to be taken seriously last week, but almost two years ago. Still, scientists overall consider the market origin more likely. I have no way of judging the evidence, and, like Tex, I suspect we’ll never know for sure.

Calling it a theory is one thing, calling it a conspiracy theory is another. This isn't "space lasers" level stuff here. The virus originated in China (although if we want to get technical I don't think there is empirical evidence of that either and China disputes it). The was a lab in or near the point of accepted origin that was "studying" novel coronaviruses. You know I'm no fan of Trump or that administration, but unless I missed it they were attributing the outbreak to China and nothing more. Yes, they leaned into the lab leak versus the wet market theory (which also never had any real evidence) and yes there may have been political value to that approach in their eyes but that doesn't make it a conspiracy theory. If I missed that they were claiming it was intentional or part of some devious NWO type of activity then I will stand corrected.

However, the original commentary that started this discussion was around much of the media labeling any lab leak discussion as conspiracy, which I think was and is utter nonsense. As is the aspersion that anyone who is willing to consider anything other than spillover is a soulless conspiracy theorist who denies Covid and its victims. Those were the things I was responding to primarily.

[Yankee Tripper]

What's Occam's Razor? I feel like it's something that we all assume is a common term but I am drawing a blank.

It boils down to the simplest answer is most likely the correct answer.

in this scenario there are 4 possible outcomes. Maybe more if you expand to the really crackpot theories.

1. like nearly every other virus throughout history, it jumped from one animal to humans through mutation.

2. Either through bad protocols or a careless researcher it was accidentally released from a lab in Wuhan where it was being studied.

3. it was intentionally released by the Chinese government on its own population to spread worldwide. The whys of this theory are where it tends to breakdown.

4. it was created by the US and planted in China to make them look bad. Again, the how’s and why’s is where this starts to breakdown.

so using Occam’s Razor, option 1 is most likely.

[Texsahara]

What's Occam's Razor? I feel like it's something that we all assume is a common term but I am drawing a blank.

a scientific and philosophical rule that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily which is interpreted as requiring that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex or that explanations of unknown phenomena be sought first in terms of known quantities

It is being applied incorrectly in this scenario.

[Texsahara]

Trump was hardly the messenger about the lab leak. As soon as I found out how close the Wuhan Institute of Virology was to the outbreak that theory sprung into my mind. I'm far from alone on that. If you want to call an Occam's Razor scenario like that a conspiracy theory, that's on you. What the idiot Trump said shouldn't have anything to do with this.

And "why does China behave the way they do"? You mean like every other oppressive regime in history?

How is your preferred theory the Occam's razor scenario when both previous coronaviruses that jumped from animals to humans, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, were found to be natural transmissions? Seems like the opposite is equally plausible making Occam's razor a non-starter.

[Donnybaseball72]

What's Occam's Razor? I feel like it's something that we all assume is a common term but I am drawing a blank.

[Texsahara]

My point is exactly what I stated. The lab leak possibility was never a conspiracy theory.

And of course you could invert your closing comment to say those that have been so supportive of FBI conclusions for years now are suddenly not particularly interested in the FBI evaluation and Wray's recent comments.

It's a near certainty thanks in part to China's refusal to cooperate with the global community that we will never be able to definitively say what the origin of the virus was. Why would China not be more cooperative if they were confident this were a spillover event? Why are they accusing the US military of planting the virus? Why is there a tendency to lean into blaming Mother Nature rather than trying to hold real people accountable even though neither is scientifically proven?

What John said about there being a conspiracy theory around a lab leak. When the messenger is guilty of delivering one conspiracy theory after another for political gain (or maybe just for their own amusement in some some cases), it's not wrong to consider the messenger. It's a new spin on the boy who cried wolf.

I'm sorry. I've missed people not being interested in the FBI take or Wray's comments. Who are you referencing?

Why does China behave the way they do? Got me. No idea. But perhaps our country's leadership would have gotten more cooperation if they hadn't been so busy spreading conspiracies theories about them.

[JL25and3]

Of course you can't prove it, because it's not true. It could be proven if it were true, and you'd see those poll results all over MSNBC if it were.

My bet is that it was leaked accidentally from a lab and that it was not a hoax and my dead relatives should tell you how I feel about the impacts. As much as you and others like to (understandably in many cases) bemoan MTG and Q types when they talk gibberish, this is no better and is rather lazy demonization of people who have the nerve to disagree with you.

I don’t entirely agree, except of course my sorrow about your relatives. The lab leak theory was originally pushed by Trump, Peter Navarro and others of that ilk, I believe, to use as a political weapon against China and others. The fact that it may also be true was irrelevant to them, as all truth was. It was pushed without evidence by pathological bullcrappers because it served their political purposes.

It didn’t just start to be taken seriously last week, but almost two years ago. Still, scientists overall consider the market origin more likely. I have no way of judging the evidence, and, like Tex, I suspect we’ll never know for sure.

[False1]

To paraphrase Bill Maher, I can’t prove this but I know it’s true: Those who believe that Covid was leaked (maliciously or not )from a lab tend also tend to believe covid was a hoax and no big deal.

Of course you can't prove it, because it's not true. It could be proven if it were true, and you'd see those poll results all over MSNBC if it were.

My bet is that it was leaked accidentally from a lab and that it was not a hoax and my dead relatives should tell you how I feel about the impacts. As much as you and others like to (understandably in many cases) bemoan MTG and Q types when they talk gibberish, this is no better and is rather lazy demonization of people who have the nerve to disagree with you.

[False1]

Not sure what your point is. It may not be exclusive to the right but they are the champs right now and they have earned the criticism and rejection they get. That's all I'm saying . Hard disagree that lab leak was Occam's razor and it's still far from conclusive. The scientific community is not particularly supportive of the FBI's conclusion. Of course the FBI not presenting any new evidence supporting that conclusion may have something to do with that. I would think they'd correct that soon.

It's funny though how all the same people that have been so dismissive of FBI theories and conclusions for years now are suddenly so willing to accept this at face value with zero evidence being presented to support it.

My point is exactly what I stated. The lab leak possibility was never a conspiracy theory.

And of course you could invert your closing comment to say those that have been so supportive of FBI conclusions for years now are suddenly not particularly interested in the FBI evaluation and Wray's recent comments.

It's a near certainty thanks in part to China's refusal to cooperate with the global community that we will never be able to definitively say what the origin of the virus was. Why would China not be more cooperative if they were confident this were a spillover event? Why are they accusing the US military of planting the virus? Why is there a tendency to lean into blaming Mother Nature rather than trying to hold real people accountable even though neither is scientifically proven?

[HfxBob]

The elephant in the room for scientific investigation of COVID origins is, of course, the fact that the Chinese government refuses to allow any access to information that might be of assistance...