2021-2022 Off Season Thread

[Yankees1962]

Now the Dodgers are gone, my 2 pennies. (injuries)

I definitely don't want Corey Seager, in fact I don't want a SS. For me he is like Gallo a LHB that SO. Spend the money (or trade Sanchez but get rid of him) on a catcher and solid #2 SP (I think we can fill in 3-5 or another SP if available), play Ursehla at SS with Volpe in the year. I posted the stat numbers before after we moved Torres to 2nd (way too late). Seager was terrible in the series: 0.188 BA, 69 WRC+, more Ks than Hs (fit right in our lineup), and I think he made the (error? gave a hit) for DP that cost the game (ATL walk off game). Brian is going to spend money like he always does and all those late trades just to get a WC. And posters are happy. (Matzek shut the door on LAD with 3 Ks (highlight of the game) and last one was Betts - it's pitching)

You don't make such a decision about Seager based on one six game series. You need to evaluate the course of his career.

[Chaz]

I read this article 2x per year to remind myself how much of a money machine the franchise is and how “frugal” Hal really is.

https://www.pinstripealley.com/platf...g-steinbrenner

[Strategerie]

Yeah but that is like the most optimistic outlook on every single player. How realistic is it that everyone stays healthy and lives up to their most idealistic projection?

Related to starters:
1. How many AL starters would you rather have than Cole for 2022? (Ignoring pay)

2. How many AL starters , who are #2 or below in their rotation, would you rather have than our #2 to #5 guys? (Ignoring pay)

3. Who else has a guy like German as the #6 starter?

Related to the pen:

1. What MLB relievers would you materially rather have for 2022 than Lo and Clay Holmes? (Ignoring pay)

2. Which teams have better depth beyond their top 2 than Chapman, Chad Green, Luetge, Peralta, Michael King as the next 5?

Related to the offense:

1. Judge and Giancarlo should be locks to be over 800 (but 2021 showed anything can happen). Do you disagree? (Yes, there is above normal injury risk here)

2. Based on their full track records (entire careers, recent years, and the generally subpar 2021s), for whom would it be shocking if they OPS'd 800: Voit at 1b (current best option), Gleyber at 2b, DJ at 3b, Urshela at SS, Gallo, in LF, Hicks in CF, Sanchez at C. For whom of the above would an 800 OPS be an unreasonable over/under for a 2022 prediction? (I would say maybe Sanchez and maybe Gleyber but Gleyber or DJ get pushed to a backup if we get a new SS anyways).



Note 1 - keep in mind that my post was in response to building a super rotation and filling in the rest from the farm. I'm merely pointing out that, in some ways, we have far exceeded that standard.

Note 2 - It sounds like our actual 2022 roster will be better than our current roster. Our current roster is far from chopped liver IMO.

Note 3 - SJB, In regards to your specific post of everyone being healthy and living up to the most ideal projection, I think many people's mindsets have moved to the most negative projection for these players given 2021. Most of the players mentioned have achieved a 900ish OPS within the last 2 or 3 years (so 800 is not outlandish IMO). Health is a risk for every team but hardly any teams have a bench of possible All-Stars (and it looks to me like we are poised to have either DJ or Gleyber as our 10th position player). Normal volatility does mean that all 7 will not achieve an 800ish OPS (but, collectively as a group, they have a good shot IMO).

I personally find the standard of having a team that wins 100 games a year and is built for the postseason to be a good high standard. I find it fair to say that we've failed at that standard the last 4 years. In 2018 and 2019, while we won the 100 games, we didn't have the SPs to maximize our postseason odds (but I think bad injury luck really hurt here - it's always a small sample size risk with SPs). In the shortened 2020 and 2021, we were actually built for the postseason (pitching-wise) but didn't achieve the 100 win standard and level of excellence (I put low weight on 2020 and think 2021 was driven primarily by offensive ineptitude versus mediocre pitching that I didn't see anyone predict).

I'm curious how people honestly think of the questions I posed above. For me, I think we are obviously well-positioned pitching wise relative to other teams. I can better understand concerns about our offense since we were so consistently mediocre offensively over 162 games (it really just matters on how much of the forward prediction is based on 2021 versus past years or general skill assessment).

It's somewhat moot because we don't know what our 2022 offense will look like. If we sign Seager and can trade say Urshela, German, and change for Jose Ramirez then our offense could be:

DJ (hopefully the hernia drove his poor 2021)
Gallo (had a top 5ish WAR in the AL prior to the trade)
Judge
Seager
Giancarlo
Jose Ramirez
Voit
Hicks
C/Sanchez

As burned as we may feel after 2021, I feel hard pressed to say we are not set up for success with anything even close to the above (but we will see what the roster actually looks like).

[bucky]

You don't make such a decision about Seager based on one six game series. You need to evaluate the course of his career.

This is the post season!!!! I made my decision before the 6 games, watch him thus post season because I don't see LAD that much - to see if he was a maybe - I just waited until the end to post. It was 12 games, Oct 6 -Oct 22. 48 AB with 5 BB, 9 H, 14 SO, 188 BA, 264 OBA. He got 2 HRs and 6 RBI, LHB - He is the top of the order... he will fit right in our roster. He is not going to be cheap and will want more than 5 years. NO

He is a great player, had a great career, I think LAD should sign him.

Look Brian is going to sign a SS and we have Volpe, he likes Sanchez work ethics, and Judge is the face of our team, Sevy as #2, and Boone. I will always rooted for them to win but we always do patches (SS).

[Bauer]

Now the Dodgers are gone, my 2 pennies. (injuries)

I definitely don't want Corey Seager, in fact I don't want a SS. For me he is like Gallo a LHB that SO. Spend the money (or trade Sanchez but get rid of him) on a catcher and solid #2 SP (I think we can fill in 3-5 or another SP if available), play Ursehla at SS with Volpe in the year. I posted the stat numbers before after we moved Torres to 2nd (way too late). Seager was terrible in the series: 0.188 BA, 69 WRC+, more Ks than Hs (fit right in our lineup), and I think he made the (error? gave a hit) for DP that cost the game (ATL walk off game). Brian is going to spend money like he always does and all those late trades just to get a WC. And posters are happy. (Matzek shut the door on LAD with 3 Ks (highlight of the game) and last one was Betts - it's pitching)

I don’t follow the NL closely and am in no position to argue for or against acquiring Seager. However—and because I share your dislike of players who are K machines—I just checked his K stats; and his K rate, over his career (18%), is below the MLB average (22 %) and about half the K rate of Joey G. He strikes out more often in the post-season, but, of course, there he’s facing high-end pitching. One of his virtues, though, is that depth of post-season experience, including World Series experience.

[Obnoxio]

The Braves did make a few moves to bolster their team.
Maybe the Yankees should have chose Pearls before Chicken.

[NelsonMuntz]

I read this article 2x per year to remind myself how much of a money machine the franchise is and how “frugal” Hal really is.

https://www.pinstripealley.com/platf...g-steinbrenner

Like I said a few pages back—the Yankees are a marketing organization with a baseball team.

[sjb23]

The Braves would not even have smelled the post season if they were in any other division.

Is the solution to:

Dissolve the divisions & balance the schedule
The top 5 W-L records go to postseason
Seeds 4 & 5 play a best of 3
Winner plays #1 seed in best of 5 series while #2 plays #3 in best of 5 series also

[Art Vanderlay]

Our projected rotation next year is:

Cole
Sevy
Montgomery
Cortes
Taillon

With the following as backups:

German, Clarke Schmidt, Gil, plus some prospects


That's extremely good. And our lineup is filled with hitters who should be able to OPS over 800, even before any offseason upgrades (much better than just filling in from the farm). Good bullpen too with ridiculous depth and anchored by Loaisiga and Clay Holmes.

2021 was a really bad year from both a performance perspective and a surplus value perspective (the massive underperformance plus the accumulation of service time crushed many of our players' asset values). Things still look bright for 2022 and beyond (our roster and pitching is still very good and our farm had a good year, even considering the deadline selloffs).

Once again while I admire your enthusiasm I strongly disagree with your evaluation. IMO the current Yankee roster is the 4th best in the AL East. Without some heavy lifting this winter they are in trouble.

[Portbb]

Is the solution to:

Dissolve the divisions & balance the schedule
The top 5 W-L records go to postseason
Seeds 4 & 5 play a best of 3
Winner plays #1 seed in best of 5 series while #2 plays #3 in best of 5 series also

Balancing the schedule is the hard part. What does that mean? Each team plays every other team the same amount of times? AL and NL stays with 15 teams each? The seeding you describe sounds find.

[False1]

Now the Dodgers are gone, my 2 pennies. (injuries)

I definitely don't want Corey Seager, in fact I don't want a SS. For me he is like Gallo a LHB that SO. Spend the money (or trade Sanchez but get rid of him) on a catcher and solid #2 SP (I think we can fill in 3-5 or another SP if available), play Ursehla at SS with Volpe in the year. I posted the stat numbers before after we moved Torres to 2nd (way too late). Seager was terrible in the series: 0.188 BA, 69 WRC+, more Ks than Hs (fit right in our lineup), and I think he made the (error? gave a hit) for DP that cost the game (ATL walk off game). Brian is going to spend money like he always does and all those late trades just to get a WC. And posters are happy. (Matzek shut the door on LAD with 3 Ks (highlight of the game) and last one was Betts - it's pitching)

Seager struck out 66 times last year, which if you adjust to a 600 PA season would be 97 Ks. Using that same math Gallo would have 232K's.

Seager's line was .306 / .394 / .521. Gallo's (with the Yankees) was .160 / .303 / .404.

Honestly the only similarity between their offensive profile is that they bat left handed.

Seager's triple slash in the NLCS is pretty underwhelming, but within that he did hit 2 HR and drove in 4 of the 27 runs the Dodgers put on the board in that series. And last year he was literally the WS MVP. In two WS he has a line of .298 / .414 / .511 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 11R in 47 AB.

[False1]

Who do they have that you'd want to count on in the rotation?

I get the nature of the question. Their rotation doesn't strike fear into anyone, like the Scherzer/Stras/Corbin top 3 did a few years back. That said, it is coming off a season of top 5 AL production. Blake and Cressey may not be all hype. It has folks putting arm injuries another year behind them in Taillon, Monty, Sevvy. It has depth. I'd like to see a savvy move for another SP arm, but if the Yankees aren't going to go bonkers on the FA/trade markets, I'd absolutely prioritize position player upgrades way ahead of the rotation.

That rotation may not strike fear into the souls of the opposition, but that current lineup makes opposing rotations salivate.

[bucky]

I don’t follow the NL closely and am in no position to argue for or against acquiring Seager. However—and because I share your dislike of players who are K machines—I just checked his K stats; and his K rate, over his career (18%), is below the MLB average (22 %) and about half the K rate of Joey G. He strikes out more often in the post-season, but, of course, there he’s facing high-end pitching. One of his virtues, though, is that depth of post-season experience, including World Series experience.

You are right. Seager had a great career and his K% is 18%. I like him. I think his WAR is 3.7. Believe me, Ks drive me nuts. (I post just poke the bat and good things happen.) The post season is about good pitching. So I want to see how the player is in high leverage situations. What I saw I don't want him, he was not good. I used Gallo and it was a mistake. There is no comparison Seager to Gallo. I don't want experience, veteran who is going to block Volpe. I want to play Volpe at SS after ASB and put Ursehla at ss this year. I know his BA will be 200. SS is not a priority now that we move Torres. It is not a weak spot - the starting catcher is. (this may be wrong but I think TOR sign a veteran to play 2nd until another player was ready for 2022 year - I think I know the names but may be wrong. My point is we need to play our prospects instead of screwing them. This is not working unless it's SP.

[bucky]

Seager struck out 66 times last year, which if you adjust to a 600 PA season would be 97 Ks. Using that same math Gallo would have 232K's.

Seager's line was .306 / .394 / .521. Gallo's (with the Yankees) was .160 / .303 / .404.

Honestly the only similarity between their offensive profile is that they bat left handed.

Seager's triple slash in the NLCS is pretty underwhelming, but within that he did hit 2 HR and drove in 4 of the 27 runs the Dodgers put on the board in that series. And last year he was literally the WS MVP. In two WS he has a line of .298 / .414 / .511 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 11R in 47 AB.

See the above post it was a mistake. I posted his post season numbers. We don't agree.

[kan_t]

This is the post season!!!! I made my decision before the 6 games, watch him thus post season because I don't see LAD that much - to see if he was a maybe - I just waited until the end to post. It was 12 games, Oct 6 -Oct 22. 48 AB with 5 BB, 9 H, 14 SO, 188 BA, 264 OBA. He got 2 HRs and 6 RBI, LHB - He is the top of the order... he will fit right in our roster. He is not going to be cheap and will want more than 5 years. NO

Did you make your decision when he was the NLCS MVP and WS MVP last year if you care about the post season this much?