2021-2022 Off Season Thread

[TexasYank23]

There was an article recently that Cole was working with MLB on a susbtance that pitchers can use for a better grip.

I saw that as well, hopefully something comes of that or he learns to pitch without it because he was very average down the stretch

[Yankees1962]

What did Gardner do besides wearing the pine tar on the cap? All the accounts I've seen limit themselves to that.

Kind of an insight into the Boone clubhouse though that this becomes a cause celebre. In the early Torre clubhouse, Girardi takes those two into a room and mediates it and it ends there, the media never even finds out.

Let's be careful for taking any reporting today as gospel because these reporters are still restricted from the clubhouse, thus, one on one interviews are very limited. The NY media is a cesspool!

[ojo]

What did Gardner do besides wearing the pine tar on the cap? All the accounts I've seen limit themselves to that.

Kind of an insight into the Boone clubhouse though that this becomes a cause celebre. In the early Torre clubhouse, Girardi takes those two into a room and mediates it and it ends there, the media never even finds out.

Your point about Girardi is a good one. Hell, with Torre, Gardner would’ve been thrown head first into a laundry bin because he’d have clearly offended veteran leadership with such nonsense toxicity.

[primetime714]

Why? i can understand not wanting him back but Cole was a jerk about it and then later said he was sorry. Gardner did nothing wrong.

Technically, no, but did he do anything right is maybe the better question? True veteran leaders have a better sense of their teammates personalities. You don't have to be in that clubhouse to know that Cole is a stone cold serious guy that's not going to take something like that lightly especially from a guy that wasn't pulling his weight in Gardner. Gardner has also consistently terrorized younger players like Frazier and Wade both of whom have never seemed to really responded to that. He's also been a "clubhouse leader" on a roster that consistently underperforms. While his teammates will say publicly that they like what he brings, I can't recall a time where Gardner's antics really helped anyone on the field or even more damning when he actually provided guidance that improved one of his teammates games. Not saying it hasn't happened and I guess you could say the whole banging on the roof gesture that he got tossed out for was a bit of a rally cry for them, but Gardner feels more like a clown than a leader. Its not like CC who would sacrifice his bonus to protect his teammates or even Didi's infectious positivity or even just Odor going in for every mound visit. Or Cole himself who is constantly working with other pitchers like Taillon to help them/the team.

I gather Cole is not the only guy that Gardner rubs the wrong way, but he's one of the few that has the clout to say something. Whether Cole's being overly sensitive or not (he is) and being kind of a jerk (debatable) doesn't really matter. Just like it doesn't matter if Gardner's intentions were good, a guy like Gardner who part of his brand is providing veteran leadership shouldn't be clashing with the team's best players. And its interesting too because Cole has been here two years and has been in other clubhouses. Its not like Judge who has never known anything different.

[jnewmark]

Funny how we all read the same articles and take away different conclusions. The couple of articles I read on the Cole/Gardner episode, left me with the impression that Cole is sort of a red ass, prima donna, and over reacted to some clubhouse joking around. I'm sure many here will disagree with me because Gardner.

[Yankees1962]

Funny how we all read the same articles and take away different conclusions. The couple of articles I read on the Cole/Gardner episode, left me with the impression that Cole is sort of a red ass, prima donna, and over reacted to some clubhouse joking around. I'm sure many here will disagree with me because Gardner.

I think it's best that Gardner moves on, I just hope Cashman changes his mind and feels the same way. His current effectiveness as a ballplayer and with a starting CF made of glass isn't a good combination for success. Shift Hicks to his role and get yourself a better starting CF.

[ojo]

Funny how we all read the same articles and take away different conclusions. The couple of articles I read on the Cole/Gardner episode, left me with the impression that Cole is sort of a red ass, prima donna, and over reacted to some clubhouse joking around. I'm sure many here will disagree with me because Gardner.

Yeah it is funny that an also ran ballplayer could force such divergent viewpoints of a situation like that. It’s almost as if the Yankees would be better off without him.

[Zimmer's Helmet]

Funny how we all read the same articles and take away different conclusions. The couple of articles I read on the Cole/Gardner episode, left me with the impression that Cole is sort of a red ass, prima donna, and over reacted to some clubhouse joking around. I'm sure many here will disagree with me because Gardner.

Just my $0.02 but it has nothing to do with Gardner or his idea of joking and everything to do with making fun of a teammate's on-field struggles which is understandably a sore spot for any player who plays the game with intensity. We're not talking about nailing down someone's shoes or sitting naked on a birthday cake.

[sd.]

Related to starters:
1. How many AL starters would you rather have than Cole for 2022? (Ignoring pay)

2. How many AL starters , who are #2 or below in their rotation, would you rather have than our #2 to #5 guys? (Ignoring pay)

3. Who else has a guy like German as the #6 starter?

Related to the pen:

1. What MLB relievers would you materially rather have for 2022 than Lo and Clay Holmes? (Ignoring pay)

2. Which teams have better depth beyond their top 2 than Chapman, Chad Green, Luetge, Peralta, Michael King as the next 5?

Related to the offense:

1. Judge and Giancarlo should be locks to be over 800 (but 2021 showed anything can happen). Do you disagree? (Yes, there is above normal injury risk here)

2. Based on their full track records (entire careers, recent years, and the generally subpar 2021s), for whom would it be shocking if they OPS'd 800: Voit at 1b (current best option), Gleyber at 2b, DJ at 3b, Urshela at SS, Gallo, in LF, Hicks in CF, Sanchez at C. For whom of the above would an 800 OPS be an unreasonable over/under for a 2022 prediction? (I would say maybe Sanchez and maybe Gleyber but Gleyber or DJ get pushed to a backup if we get a new SS anyways).



Note 1 - keep in mind that my post was in response to building a super rotation and filling in the rest from the farm. I'm merely pointing out that, in some ways, we have far exceeded that standard.

Note 2 - It sounds like our actual 2022 roster will be better than our current roster. Our current roster is far from chopped liver IMO.

Note 3 - SJB, In regards to your specific post of everyone being healthy and living up to the most ideal projection, I think many people's mindsets have moved to the most negative projection for these players given 2021. Most of the players mentioned have achieved a 900ish OPS within the last 2 or 3 years (so 800 is not outlandish IMO). Health is a risk for every team but hardly any teams have a bench of possible All-Stars (and it looks to me like we are poised to have either DJ or Gleyber as our 10th position player). Normal volatility does mean that all 7 will not achieve an 800ish OPS (but, collectively as a group, they have a good shot IMO).

I personally find the standard of having a team that wins 100 games a year and is built for the postseason to be a good high standard. I find it fair to say that we've failed at that standard the last 4 years. In 2018 and 2019, while we won the 100 games, we didn't have the SPs to maximize our postseason odds (but I think bad injury luck really hurt here - it's always a small sample size risk with SPs). In the shortened 2020 and 2021, we were actually built for the postseason (pitching-wise) but didn't achieve the 100 win standard and level of excellence (I put low weight on 2020 and think 2021 was driven primarily by offensive ineptitude versus mediocre pitching that I didn't see anyone predict).

I'm curious how people honestly think of the questions I posed above. For me, I think we are obviously well-positioned pitching wise relative to other teams. I can better understand concerns about our offense since we were so consistently mediocre offensively over 162 games (it really just matters on how much of the forward prediction is based on 2021 versus past years or general skill assessment).

It's somewhat moot because we don't know what our 2022 offense will look like. If we sign Seager and can trade say Urshela, German, and change for Jose Ramirez then our offense could be:

DJ (hopefully the hernia drove his poor 2021)
Gallo (had a top 5ish WAR in the AL prior to the trade)
Judge
Seager
Giancarlo
Jose Ramirez
Voit
Hicks
C/Sanchez

As burned as we may feel after 2021, I feel hard pressed to say we are not set up for success with anything even close to the above (but we will see what the roster actually looks like).

Starters:
1) Ignoring contracts, I'd probably put Cole in the 8-10 range for top starting pitchers in the game next year on a fantasy draft board. Still, while I wouldn't take pitchers like Ray or Stroman or maybe even Sale ahead of him, I think that's where he has dropped. Cole's floor is drastically lower than it was this time last year.

2&3) We aren't talking about most teams. We are talking about elite teams. And having Sevy as your #2 when he has pitched 18 innings over the last 3 seasons and he hasn't been a dominant MLB starter since the 1st half of 2018 (Remember he had a 5.63 ERA the last 14 games of 2018)... I think elite teams have better than that. Monty is really the only mid rotation starter that I feel comfortable going into 2022 with. Taillon and German were both terrible the 2nd half. German lost his rotation spot and Taillon, outside of his monthish long hot streak where his results didn't match his peripherals, really was below average all season.

Pen:
I'm not worried about that pen per se. I am worried about how the Yankees get so little depth out of their 2-5 starters that it taxes and exposes the pen. The pen is still worse than it was in 2017-2019 and those pens got exposed in the playoffs with their overuse.

Lineup:
1) Yes, baring an odd injury plagued season or a season where they had a slow start and then were injured for most of the year, I'd say Judge and Stanton are locks to have an OPS over .800.
2) This is where we disagree...
Voit - By all accounts he is gone. The Yankees don't want him back. I agree he is the best bet outside of Stanton and Judge to have an OPS over .800 but I don't see it being for the Yankees.
Gallo - To me is the next best bet to have an OPS over .800. My personal odds on it happening... 80%
Gleyber - I know he hit much better the entire 2nd half, not just after being moved off 2nd base, but I don't see his power coming back. I'd put his projection for 2022 right around .800 with about a 50/50 chance for being .800 or over.
Hicks - Had 2 "full" years where had an OPS over .800. I think he gets on base enough but the HR power I wouldn't bank on fully coming back. I'd put his chances (over however many games) of hitting over .800 around the 1/3 range. The problem is I'd put Gardner at like a 1/3 chance of putting up and OPS of .700 or over. So the combination of Gardner and Hicks in CF given Hicks injury history I'd put at close to maybe like 5%.
DJLM - I'd put his projections around the .750 range with maybe a 25% chance of breaking .800
Gio - He is very much looking like a 2019 fluke. At SS he may hit well enough, but OPS over .800 I'd put around maybe 20%
Sanchez - 2019 aside, it's been a long time since he consistently hit at that level. I'd put Sanchez at like a 10% chance of doing it. Maybe bump it a little higher because it is a contract year, but still, not very good.

All of this is baring a drastic change in the ball from 2021 but I'd put the over under on returning 2021 Yankees (as you put it, before upgrades) that should/are likely to put up an OPS over .800 3 or 3.5 depending on how you count Gleyber. But personally I'd be surprised if Gleyber's 2022 projection was over an .800 OPS. I think my argument and reasoning for his expected OPS to be that high is a little special pleading from a fan.

Ignoring contract:
I know this was the caveat on a lot of the questions, but in reality you can't just ignore contracts. The large amount tied up to some of these players make the opportunity to upgrade some positions very limited. And if the point is you'd feel comfortable making very minor changes and rolling out the 2021 teams back out there mostly in tact for another shot at it, then we REALLY disagree. I think the chances of that team being elite are very small. Very small.

[sd.]

Funny how we all read the same articles and take away different conclusions. The couple of articles I read on the Cole/Gardner episode, left me with the impression that Cole is sort of a red ass, prima donna, and over reacted to some clubhouse joking around. I'm sure many here will disagree with me because Gardner.

Both can be true though. I think Cole probably is the type to overreact to that.

But Gardner openly mocking a teammate like that at what was probably right before or right after his infamous press conference disaster is probably the wrong place and time to make a joke that hits that close to the mark.

Also, Gardner doing something that could be seen as mocking probably the best player on the teams performance when he should have been a candidate to be cut based on his own performance... not many would put up with that. I'm sorry. If Gardner is also going around acting like he has that kind of clout to do that based on his mediocre past just because he's been there so long, new players are going to shut that down quickly. And they should. I'd argue you should NEVER be that type of leader, but you absolutely cannot be that type of leader when you are Brett Gardner.

[ThePinStripes]

AL Starting pitching was really bad this year.

Top 15 AL pitchers (ERA)
1. Ray 154 ERA+
2. McCullers Jr 136 ERA+
3. Cole 133 ERA+
4. Montas 121 ERA+
5. Berrios 122 ERA+
6. Giolito 123 ERA+
7. Flexen 115 ERA+
8. Eovaldi 126 ERA+
9. Cease 111 ERA+
10. Manaea 104 ERA+
11. Greinke 103 ERA+
12. Irvin 96 ERA+
13. Ryu 100 ERA+
14. Lyles 82 ERA+
15. Keuchel - 82 ERA+
Notably missing due to injury: Glasnow, Verlander (and I question his effectiveness without foreign substances) ???

NL:
1. Burnes 176 ERA+
2. Scherzer 166 ERA+
3. Buehler 165 ERA+
4. Woodruff 166 ERA+
5. Wheeler 150 ERA+
6. Gausman 145 ERA+
7. Urias 138 ERA+
8. Stroman 133 ERA+
9. Fried 145 ERA+
10. Wainwright 127 ERA+
11. Desclafani 129 ERA+
12. Musgrove 122 ERA+
14. Alcantara 131 ERA+
14. Morton 132 ERA+
15. Miley 141 ERA+
Notably missing due to injuries/etc: Kershaw, Bauer, Snell, Paddack, DeGrom, Clevinger


There were a total of 11 SP in the AL that qualified with an ERA+ over 100. Look at the ERA+ of the bottom 1/3 of the NL list vs the top of the AL list. The NL teams gobbled up all the good pitching over the past few years.




Also note, more NL pitchers (22) qualified (162IP) than AL (15).

[sd.]

Yup. Great post. That's why I sidestepped the questions from AL team and made it about elite teams.

[effdamets]

I thought from the start that the Yankees should have stayed away from Cole.
When he pitched for Houston, his spin rates went through the roof.
I believed the increase was unsustainable.
But it turned out worse with the tacky stuff....

[Chaz]

Only thing worse than being a Yankee fan these days (well unless you are a Jets-Giant fan) is also being a Manchester United fan.

Similar parallels; both Yankees & Man U are family run by 2nd get sons, spend money but have no clue on how to put it together and are employing pathetic GM's/Coaches.

Winter is coming but as a fan of both teams, I feel the snow is 5 feet high with no way out right now.

[ojo]

Only thing worse than being a Yankee fan these days (well unless you are a Jets-Giant fan) is also being a Manchester United fan.

Similar parallels; both Yankees & Man U are family run by 2nd get sons, spend money but have no clue on how to put it together and are employing pathetic GM's/Coaches.

Winter is coming but as a fan of both teams, I feel the snow is 5 feet high with no way out right now.

The Glazer boys just need to see if there are any 44 year old GOATs who might lead the franchise for a while.

[NelsonMuntz]

Technically, no, but did he do anything right is maybe the better question? True veteran leaders have a better sense of their teammates personalities. You don't have to be in that clubhouse to know that Cole is a stone cold serious guy that's not going to take something like that lightly especially from a guy that wasn't pulling his weight in Gardner. Gardner has also consistently terrorized younger players like Frazier and Wade both of whom have never seemed to really responded to that. He's also been a "clubhouse leader" on a roster that consistently underperforms. While his teammates will say publicly that they like what he brings, I can't recall a time where Gardner's antics really helped anyone on the field or even more damning when he actually provided guidance that improved one of his teammates games. Not saying it hasn't happened and I guess you could say the whole banging on the roof gesture that he got tossed out for was a bit of a rally cry for them, but Gardner feels more like a clown than a leader. Its not like CC who would sacrifice his bonus to protect his teammates or even Didi's infectious positivity or even just Odor going in for every mound visit. Or Cole himself who is constantly working with other pitchers like Taillon to help them/the team.

I gather Cole is not the only guy that Gardner rubs the wrong way, but he's one of the few that has the clout to say something. Whether Cole's being overly sensitive or not (he is) and being kind of a jerk (debatable) doesn't really matter. Just like it doesn't matter if Gardner's intentions were good, a guy like Gardner who part of his brand is providing veteran leadership shouldn't be clashing with the team's best players. And its interesting too because Cole has been here two years and has been in other clubhouses. Its not like Judge who has never known anything different.

Well said. I was being hyperbolic when I said Cole should have knocked his teeth out. All I meant was if I'm Cole, I would probably fail to see the humor in the situation and at that point in the season Gardner was probably rocking a sub .600 OPS. Maybe work on your hitting instead of planning the next big "prank" on your teammates. Or here's an idea: show some leadership and support your teammates instead of tormenting them.