2021-2022 Off Season Thread

[HelloNewman]

Recency bias triumphs again. Cashman wins.

[kan_t]

Winning the WS is a crapshoot as I don't think many here thought the Braves were going to win it. I'm honestly surprised that they were able to handle the Dodgers and Astros relatively so easily.

Winning the WS is a crapshoot to Division winner only. In last 10 seasons only 2 wild card teams win it all.

[kan_t]

Last 10 years WS match up

Braves (Division winner) vs Astros (Division winner)
Dodgers (Division winner) vs Rays (Division winner)
Nationals (Wild card) vs Astros (Division winner)
Red Sox (Division winner) vs Dodgers (Division winner)
Astros (Division winner) vs Dodgers (Division winner)
Cubs (Division winner) vs Indians (Division winner)
Royals (Division winner) vs Mets (Division winner)
Giants (Wild card) vs Royals (Wild card)
Red Sox (Division winner) vs Cards (Division winner)
Giants (Division winner) vs Tigers (Division winner)

Only 3 out of 20 WS teams are wild card teams.

[TexasYank23]

Good for freeman, glad he got one

[yank4life2005]

Good for freeman, glad he got one

Hope Freeman gets another with the Yankees..

[ThePinStripes]

Last 10 years WS match up

Braves (Division winner) vs Astros (Division winner)
Dodgers (Division winner) vs Rays (Division winner)
Nationals (Wild card) vs Astros (Division winner)
Red Sox (Division winner) vs Dodgers (Division winner)
Astros (Division winner) vs Dodgers (Division winner)
Cubs (Division winner) vs Indians (Division winner)
Royals (Division winner) vs Mets (Division winner)
Giants (Wild card) vs Royals (Wild card)
Red Sox (Division winner) vs Cards (Division winner)
Giants (Division winner) vs Tigers (Division winner)

Only 3 out of 20 WS teams are wild card teams.

Fun illustration on Cashman numbers as he spins them right now:
15% of WS teams are wildcard teams, which correlates to 20% of teams in the playoffs being WC teams. 80% of the teams are DW and 85% of the WS teams are DW. Complete crapshoot.

Reality: It's more like 25% (before second WC, and the two WC teams play each other to get in so in reality, it's 25%). Which means they're nearly half as likely to make it (15 is almost half of 25).

[Art Vanderlay]

In recent years we’ve seen the Rays, Dodgers, and now the Braves knock off the Astros. IMO it’s another indictment of Cashmsn that with all his resources he could not build a roster to knock off Houston. They knocked out the Yankees three times during this run.

[HfxBob]

Winning the WS is a crapshoot to Division winner only. In last 10 seasons only 2 wild card teams win it all.

The expected win rate by wild card teams is 25%. So 20% is not far from expected.

[Art Vanderlay]

Winning the WS is a crapshoot as I don't think many here thought the Braves were going to win it. I'm honestly surprised that they were able to handle the Dodgers and Astros relatively so easily.

The “crapshoot” narrative is just an excuse for poor performance. The Braves won their Division and their GM killed it at the deadline, thereby significantly increasing their chances. If Cashman does a better job and the Yankees get back to winning Divisions you will
see more WS in the Bronx.

[Zimmer's Helmet]

In recent years we’ve seen the Rays, Dodgers, and now the Braves knock off the Astros. IMO it’s another indictment of Cashmsn that with all his resources he could not build a roster to knock off Houston. They knocked out the Yankees three times during this run.

This 100%. Sadly there’s a large segment of this fanbase drunk on the Hal/Cashman Kool-Aid.

Not so much here, but one look at Twitter and it’s clear the expectations are lower than they’ve ever been. When you see fans tweeting that the “Yankees can’t afford” a specific player, it’s all the proof you need.

[Paul Zuvella]

Great point, its easily observable how entitled he feels in those interviews and indignant reactions like that to what is a fairly harmlessly posed question (started off with "what do you say to those..."), show that. I feel fairly confident in assuming that not a single reporter in that room would dare ask the same question posed about Cashman himself unless they never planned to be in that room again or unless they cleared it with the Yankee PR team first. Even though the obvious follow-up question to his response on Hal would've been: "if its not the money what would you say to fans that question how its being spent?" Zero chance anyone would dare ask something reasonable like that.

Exactly, or bring up the actual numbers showing how the Yankees spend a smaller percentage of revenues than all of the other teams. After Cash tut tutted the payroll question that would be the perfect follow up. You’d get banned from the clubhouse for life though, so it would take a brave soul.

[ace]

I don’t think Atlanta winning influences what the Yankees will do at all. They were going to be cheap and take half steps no matter what. Like some of you guys have laid out much better than I can, they always play both sides of every move and non-move so they are always in control of the narrative. They didn’t need 88 win Atlanta “getting hot at the right time” to justify what they are going to do, although that’s how their reporters will spin it for them.

[Portbb]

88 win braves win.

In the last 25 years only teams with worse records winning the WS were 83 win 2006 Cardinals and 87 win 2000 Yankees.

[Portbb]

In recent years we’ve seen the Rays, Dodgers, and now the Braves knock off the Astros. IMO it’s another indictment of Cashmsn that with all his resources he could not build a roster to knock off Houston. They knocked out the Yankees three times during this run.

Also Nationals beat Houston in 2019 WS and Boston beat them in 2018 playoffs. When did Dodgers beat them?

[jnewmark]

Winning the WS is a crapshoot as I don't think many here thought the Braves were going to win it. I'm honestly surprised that they were able to handle the Dodgers and Astros relatively so easily.

At the trade deadline, the Braves were given a 2% chance of even getting to the WS.