2021-2022 Off Season Thread

[matt2351]

I get how folks have become invested in the crapshoot theory, but let's maybe question some of this. The Braves made significant moves at the trade deadline and acquired Soler, Duvall, and Rosario. From July 31st (the day after the trade deadline) through the end of the season, the Braves were 37-19. That's .661 ball over the last 35% of the season. This includes closing out the season at 12-2. For reference, the Giants had the best record in MLB with a .660 record. A recent article in the NY Post quotes Travis D'Arnaud talking about the impact the trades had on the clubhouse. When analyzing all of this, we have to account for all factors that entered the equation at all points along the continuum and the overall effect they have had on the team.

A true crapshoot would be if Manfred put every team in some bingo hopper and randomly drew enough teams to fill all playoff spots. If these randomly chosen teams ended up being populated by (among others) the Giants, the Dodgers, the Astros, the Rays and then the Orioles and the Diamondbacks and somehow the Orioles and Diamondbacks ended up playing each other in the WS with one of the them winning, that would be a truly random event and confirmation of the crapshoot theory. That is not at all what happened here. The Braves were one of the best teams in MLB for over 1/3 of the season and that 1/3+ of the season was the part that fed directly into the playoffs. The trades they made not only bolstered them in the regular season but paid huge dividends in the postseason. I don't see this as even a remotely random event.

I understand that the crapshoot theory gives people hope. "If it can randomly happen for team X, it can be the Yankees next year." It also can comfort people with the idea that it isn't necessarily that the Yankees FO isn't competent, it is just that the organization has been unlucky and that can turn without making any fundamental changes - which we all know aren't coming anytime soon. Without the crapshoot theory, there is not much reason to continue to engage with the team in the way that most of us do. That isn't a fun thought. I understand the desire to frame this in terms of stochasticism, but I don't feel this is reflective of the evidence we have in front of us.

[Benefactor]

Who said it was expected?

my point is by winning their division and making some shrewd moves at the deadline they increased their odds. Contrast that to the Yankees who don’t win division titles and have an underperforming GM.

I do congratulate Cashman on one thing, I can tell by some of the posts here and calls on talk radio he has been successful in getting a portion of the fan base and media to embrace the crapshoot narrative which takes the spotlight off his poor performance.

I agree that Cashman is an underperforming GM, But he made deadline deals too. How did that Gallo and Rizzo trade work out for them? The Braves practically won the lottery at the deadline because I don't think anyone in their wildest dreams thought they were building a championship contender with a bunch of average to below average players trades. I wonder what the reaction would have been if Cashman would have revamped the OF with those same guys.

I can't tell if posters are more offended that the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot or that Cashman used the word in a sentence.

[Benefactor]

The Braves won because their GM made great trades at the deadline. They were not really an 88 win team. How does their post AS break winning percentage stack up against the other teams?

Well, they were dead last in SOS so maybe they got fat feasting on their division foes. The NL East was arguably the worst division in baseball.

[Obnoxio]

The problem is that Cashmonkey didn’t get guys that helped in an area of need.

the Yankees already had a quality LF.

Rizzo helped a little but he wasn’t a difference maker.

cashmonkey left a tattered pitching staff in no better shape.

[Yankees1962]

It’s interesting how Cashman’s prior use of the term “crapshoot” solicits so many responses when we all know that Cashman’s performance as Yankees GM is the reason why the Yankees haven’t gone far into the playoffs.

This is on Cashman and most of the media and fans understand that fact. The playoffs being somewhat of a “crapshoot” is not an excuse for the Yankees playoff failures.

[YFIB]

I get how folks have become invested in the crapshoot theory, but let's maybe question some of this. The Braves made significant moves at the trade deadline and acquired Soler, Duvall, and Rosario. From July 31st (the day after the trade deadline) through the end of the season, the Braves were 37-19. That's .661 ball over the last 35% of the season. This includes closing out the season at 12-2. For reference, the Giants had the best record in MLB with a .660 record. A recent article in the NY Post quotes Travis D'Arnaud talking about the impact the trades had on the clubhouse. When analyzing all of this, we have to account for all factors that entered the equation at all points along the continuum and the overall effect they have had on the team.

A true crapshoot would be if Manfred put every team in some bingo hopper and randomly drew enough teams to fill all playoff spots. If these randomly chosen teams ended up being populated by (among others) the Giants, the Dodgers, the Astros, the Rays and then the Orioles and the Diamondbacks and somehow the Orioles and Diamondbacks ended up playing each other in the WS with one of the them winning, that would be a truly random event and confirmation of the crapshoot theory. That is not at all what happened here. The Braves were one of the best teams in MLB for over 1/3 of the season and that 1/3+ of the season was the part that fed directly into the playoffs. The trades they made not only bolstered them in the regular season but paid huge dividends in the postseason. I don't see this as even a remotely random event.

I understand that the crapshoot theory gives people hope. "If it can randomly happen for team X, it can be the Yankees next year." It also can comfort people with the idea that it isn't necessarily that the Yankees FO isn't competent, it is just that the organization has been unlucky and that can turn without making any fundamental changes - which we all know aren't coming anytime soon. Without the crapshoot theory, there is not much reason to continue to engage with the team in the way that most of us do. That isn't a fun thought. I understand the desire to frame this in terms of stochasticism, but I don't feel this is reflective of the evidence we have in front of us.

This is always a painful discussion for me on here because it devolves into a binary crapshoot vs. skill discussion that doesn't reflect reality.

The truth is, there's luck and skill involved in winning the WS. For the most part, I'd argue that the best teams make the playoffs as a result of the 162 game schedule (although injuries, late season acquisitions, etc., create some deviation there). The playoffs, however, certainly contain more of a crapshoot factor - and MLB's commitment to continually increasing the size of the playoff field has introduced more randomness into the equation.

Given the advantages inherent in a $200 million+ payroll, I'd argue that the Yankees have a chance (regardless of how well they are managed) to win the World Series most years. I think the real discussion is about how significant that chance is, and how much they could increase their odds by doing a better job of allocating their resources and making better decisions.

[TexasYank23]

Tigers trading for Tucker Barnhart per Heyman

[Portbb]

The Braves won because their GM made great trades at the deadline. They were not really an 88 win team. How does their post AS break winning percentage stack up against the other teams?

Much much better. The WS MVP was a midseason trade. That GM did amazing.

[Portbb]

Well, they were dead last in SOS so maybe they got fat feasting on their division foes. The NL East was arguably the worst division in baseball.

And yet they’ve won two of the last three World Series.

[Benefactor]

And yet they’ve won two of the last three World Series.

Braves hadn't won a WS since 1995.

[matt2351]

This is always a painful discussion for me on here because it devolves into a binary crapshoot vs. skill discussion that doesn't reflect reality.

The truth is, there's luck and skill involved in winning the WS. For the most part, I'd argue that the best teams make the playoffs as a result of the 162 game schedule (although injuries, late season acquisitions, etc., create some deviation there). The playoffs, however, certainly contain more of a crapshoot factor - and MLB's commitment to continually increasing the size of the playoff field has introduced more randomness into the equation.

Given the advantages inherent in a $200 million+ payroll, I'd argue that the Yankees have a chance (regardless of how well they are managed) to win the World Series most years. I think the real discussion is about how significant that chance is, and how much they could increase their odds by doing a better job of allocating their resources and making better decisions.

I totally agree with the bolded and that it is absolutely not a binary. There really isn't much I don't agree with in your post except maybe the part about the Yankees having a chance every year. I guess this comes down to how we measure this and it gets super conjectural and theoretical.

[TexasYank23]

Tigers got Barnhart for one infield prospect that hit below the Mendoza line in the minors last year - wow

[Portbb]

Braves hadn't won a WS since 1995.

I was referring to the NL East. Nats in 2019 and Braves in 2021. Two out of three most recent WS champs are from weak NL East.

[effdamets]

I get how folks have become invested in the crapshoot theory, but let's maybe question some of this. The Braves made significant moves at the trade deadline and acquired Soler, Duvall, and Rosario. From July 31st (the day after the trade deadline) through the end of the season, the Braves were 37-19. That's .661 ball over the last 35% of the season. This includes closing out the season at 12-2. For reference, the Giants had the best record in MLB with a .660 record. A recent article in the NY Post quotes Travis D'Arnaud talking about the impact the trades had on the clubhouse. When analyzing all of this, we have to account for all factors that entered the equation at all points along the continuum and the overall effect they have had on the team.

A true crapshoot would be if Manfred put every team in some bingo hopper and randomly drew enough teams to fill all playoff spots. If these randomly chosen teams ended up being populated by (among others) the Giants, the Dodgers, the Astros, the Rays and then the Orioles and the Diamondbacks and somehow the Orioles and Diamondbacks ended up playing each other in the WS with one of the them winning, that would be a truly random event and confirmation of the crapshoot theory. That is not at all what happened here. The Braves were one of the best teams in MLB for over 1/3 of the season and that 1/3+ of the season was the part that fed directly into the playoffs. The trades they made not only bolstered them in the regular season but paid huge dividends in the postseason. I don't see this as even a remotely random event.

I understand that the crapshoot theory gives people hope. "If it can randomly happen for team X, it can be the Yankees next year." It also can comfort people with the idea that it isn't necessarily that the Yankees FO isn't competent, it is just that the organization has been unlucky and that can turn without making any fundamental changes - which we all know aren't coming anytime soon. Without the crapshoot theory, there is not much reason to continue to engage with the team in the way that most of us do. That isn't a fun thought. I understand the desire to frame this in terms of stochasticism, but I don't feel this is reflective of the evidence we have in front of us.

Amen to this. I couldn't agree more.

[Benefactor]

I was referring to the NL East. Nats in 2019 and Braves in 2021. Two out of three most recent WS champs are from weak NL East.

True but you can't really draw parallels. Two years ago, the NL East was one of the best Divisions in baseball and this year, they were one of, if not the worst. The WC winning Nationals only won 65 games.