2021-2022 Off Season Thread

[HelloNewman]

Well, time will tell, of course, but I don't see the ship sinking any time soon.

Neither did Captain Smith.

[ThePinStripes]

Non-tendering is my preferred move. Put those resources to work elsewhere. Gary is a liability defensively, there is no question about that. And in his last 618 ABs dating back to 2018, he's put up .187 / .291 / .406 (90 OPS+) making him below average as a hitter as well. Even last year where he bounced back to just under league average offense overall, he was 16th among all ML catcher with at least 300 AB with negative 3.8 offensive runs created. It's time to stop dreaming on his early career success unfortunately.

I'd honestly much prefer Higgy PLUS whatever they improve with an extra $7MM or so. Higgy actually is rather good defensively. He's a massive upgrade over Sanchez. Despite only fielding ~1600 pitches, Higgy stole 3 runs with pitch framing (good for 13th in the league even with less volume). Sanchez cost his pitcher -6 runs from pitch framing, and was basically bottom of the barrel (55th of 59 total). FG has Higgy at 8 defensive runs saved overall last year in spite of only catching about a third of total innings thrown by Yankee pitchers. On a rate basis that would have put him amongst the league leaders given more volume. There's a reason Cole wants to throw to Higgy.

I do prefer Higgy as a backup, he's a guy that can give you good defense, that pitchers like throwing to, that can give you good pop from time to time. I'd prefer a new starting catcher, but if my options are giving the job to Sanchez again or giving it to Higgy plus reinvesting several million elsewhere, I'm definitely going with the latter.

Higgy looks like he’s playing fetch with a poodle when he’s trying to throw out a base runner.

catchers hit below average. League average offense is worth a lot. On a 1 year deal when you’re looking at as many issues this team has, you take league average offense and defensive liability at catcher on a year deal and focus on SS, CF tor pitcher, closer and the self inflicted 1B problem your ego created.

plus, the catcher only plays about 75% as much as other position starters.

[ymike673]

Well, time will tell, of course, but I don't see the ship sinking any time soon.

Should be interesting to see what the attendance will be next season if there are no major changes in the team. The ship has already started to sink.

[ymike673]

Yeah. But captain Smith could not do anything once they hit the iceberg.

[False1]

Higgy looks like he’s playing fetch with a poodle when he’s trying to throw out a base runner.

catchers hit below average. League average offense is worth a lot. On a 1 year deal when you’re looking at as many issues this team has, you take league average offense and defensive liability at catcher on a year deal and focus on SS, CF tor pitcher, closer and the self inflicted 1B problem your ego created.

plus, the catcher only plays about 75% as much as other position starters.

In the pecking order of defense, getting hitters out before they reach base is a better outcome than caching a few of them trying to steal. And while I once thought Gary would control the run game based on his good pop time and strong arm, those days are long gone as they are tying him in pretzel knots to try to prevent a wave of passed balls. Gary has a CS rate of 17% last year, with an attempt every 15 innings. Higgy has a CS rate of 13% last year, with an attempt every 14 innings. In terms of advancing baserunners, Gary has a passed ball or "wild pitch" every 13 innings, whereas for Higgy it was every 22 innings.

Actually there are a number of above average hitting catchers even when not adjusted for position. Gary's wRC+ of 99 is 16th of 30 catchers with >200 AB.

But this is really about resource allocation and about moving on. That $7.5MM puts him in the top 10 amongst ML catchers in terms of salary.

[ymike673]

At the open house today I noticed that the place on the OF fence that formally held the LF manuel auxiliary scoreboard has been completely gutted out. Another piece of atmosphere gone. Manuel scoreboards might be ok for rich teams like Boston and Houston but when you own a poor team like Hal does you have to save every penny.

[Strategerie]

Well, time will tell, of course, but I don't see the ship sinking any time soon.

Agreed. The biggest risks I see are:

1. The new CBA expanding the playoffs
2. Cashman bowing to the pressure and making un-Cashman like moves that make the future more difficult

Examples of un Cashman like moves that I fear (where he bows to public pressure):

1. Selling some of our recent underachievers at pennies on the dollar (Voit, Hicks, Urshela, Frazier, Gallo...). I'm fine with selling folks closer to free agency who have been underachieving for some time, like Sanchez.

2. Committing to long term, high AAV deals which have tons of downside (eg, Judge, Seager, ...). I think Cashman improved on his free agent signings over time but runs a risk of regression this year based on the rumors. Just last year, he smartly held firm on DJ's AAV while others thought DJ warranted 10M more per year. He also made the unpopular move to avoid Corbin, which looks great at the moment. I hope he continues to avoid an obtain at all cost mentality with any player (I do think he wanted Cole at all costs for reasons I can understand and respect, despite the big risk).

3. Not getting enough value for our prospects and trading them for "established" players with limited control. I would rather we trade for prospects that meet more of a need (eg, the Montero for Pineda trade - which didn't really work out for anyone but is an example of a way to fill a need with a longer term runway). The "established" players often don't work out either (eg, Gray, Paxton, early return on Gallo, arguably Rizzo, ....) so it's a risk either way and I prefer the upside of using assets to acquire other young assets (eg, the Clay Holmes acquisition as opposed to getting the more "established" Andrew Heaney with a good history of attractive FIPs). Our recent success with obtaining and developing prospects has resulted in consistently overflowing 40 man rosters and Rule 5 draft issues so some level of selling is needed..

4. Paying too much of a premium for lefty bats going forward. While we need more lefty bats (and should be willing to pay a slight premium for that), I wouldn't go overboard and eschew solid righty bats who are a much better value (eg, at this latest deadline, we may have been too focused on lefty bats versus strong players).

Anyways, this will be a very tricky offseason to navigate, given all the arbitration increases, many poor 2021 performances, fan frustration, extension decisions that should be made, a great free agent class, ..... Unlike virtually everyone else here, I am hoping for Cashman to stay strong and maintain his general approach in recent years. However, I fear he moves in a direction more aligned with public opinion. We shall see. The Yankees will be one of the favorites in 2022 IMO but their decisions this offseason will strongly dictate how strong they are in 2024 and beyond.

I've focused this post on the moves the Yankees might make. What happens with the CBA (namely an expansion of the playoffs and watering down of the regular season) could be a huge bummer.

[TexasYank23]

At the open house today I noticed that the place on the OF fence that formally held the LF manuel auxiliary scoreboard has been completely gutted out. Another piece of atmosphere gone. Manuel scoreboards might be ok for rich teams like Boston and Houston but when you own a poor team like Hal does you have to save every penny.

It was already a mall that has a baseball field in the middle of it

[ymike673]

It was already a mall that has a baseball field in the middle of it

It was always that but the manual boards at least were a remembrance to the original stadium.

[Obnoxio]

Duck tales, woo ooh, duck tales.



what do you all think of Kurt Suzuki?

[matt2351]

It was already a mall that has a baseball field in the middle of it

Inhabited by a PR firm that operates a company baseball team. I'd say it's a good fit.

[TexasYank23]

A lot of smoke today around the Olsen trade. Bowden on mlbradio today saying they really want to get a deal done and this Twitter account ScoopsRBW saying talks are progressing. Not a verified Twitter account but before Cole signed a non verified account had the scoop before all the big journos

something to watch this week

[newhampfan]

A lot of smoke today around the Olsen trade. Bowden on mlbradio today saying they really want to get a deal done and this Twitter account ScoopsRBW saying talks are progressing. Not a (verified Twitter account but before Cole signed a non verified account had the scoop before all the big journos

something to watch this week

Go for Marte or Reynolds instead. We need someone finally to send Gardner to the Marlins or (no doubt, his wish) the Rays (so, he likely would think, he might stick it to us). I still prefer Rizzo over Olson, but as long as we get a CF that blocks Gardner, I'm for it.

[primetime714]

Higgy looks like he’s playing fetch with a poodle when he’s trying to throw out a base runner.

catchers hit below average. League average offense is worth a lot. On a 1 year deal when you’re looking at as many issues this team has, you take league average offense and defensive liability at catcher on a year deal and focus on SS, CF tor pitcher, closer and the self inflicted 1B problem your ego created.

plus, the catcher only plays about 75% as much as other position starters.

Yea but I can get a top notch defensive catcher like Manny Pina who basically gives you the same offense as Sanchez and he’ll cost less than Sanchez’s arb salary. So will someone like Yan Gomes who is a better defender. Tucker Barnhardt was salary dumped and he made similar to what Sanchez will get maybe slightly less and hits about the same but is a lefty and an elite defender. So many ways to replace at least 90% of Sanchez’s offense while also massively upgrading the defense.

The only reason to hold onto Sanchez is if you really thought you could make him a well above average hitter again, but I see no reason to think that’s realistic. League average offense with miserable defense (Gary has a great arm but is terrible otherwise) is nothing to get excited about in fact it’s something to aggressively walk away from.

[Zimmer's Helmet]

Go for Marte or Reynolds instead. We need someone finally to send Gardner to the Marlins or (no doubt, his wish) the Rays (so, he likely would think, he might stick it to us). I still prefer Rizzo over Olson, but as long as we get a CF that blocks Gardner, I'm for it.

Why would you prefer Rizzo over Olson?

Not being critical, just trying to understand why you would prefer an older, more expensive player over the younger, better and cheaper player?