2021-2022 Off Season Thread

[Strategerie]

But if this was your take why not sign him for 6 years at $180MM? You could get that 6th year or if he’s useless after 5 and only owed an incremental $5MM you could cut him for that matter. That’s a good risk/reward. Just front load the contract.

I definitely agree - a 6 yr/180M contract is much better than a 5 yr/175 contract. People worry about the years but the key is the incremental cost of the extra year(s). Adding low cost extra years not only provides good risk/reward in later years but also lowers the AAV (which is very helpful, assuming the new luxury tax rules are similar to the old ones).

I would aim to back load the contract for two key reasons - (a) it's a lower economic outlay from a present value point of view and (b) it lowers the economic impact and motivation for the player to exercise an opt out (which has become much more en vogue for today's contracts and is a significant underrated negative for clubs as they are signing star players - creates a very big skew on the risk/reward towards the player).

[False1]

I definitely agree - a 6 yr/180M contract is much better than a 5 yr/175 contract. People worry about the years but the key is the incremental cost of the extra year(s). Adding low cost extra years not only provides good risk/reward in later years but also lowers the AAV (which is very helpful, assuming the new luxury tax rules are similar to the old ones).

I would aim to back load the contract for two key reasons - (a) it's a lower economic outlay from a present value point of view and (b) it lowers the economic impact and motivation for the player to exercise an opt out (which has become much more en vogue for today's contracts and is a significant underrated negative for clubs as they are signing star players - creates a very big skew on the risk/reward towards the player).

Yeah, I agree that back loading would be advantageous for the club. I was just pontificating that with the proposed terms, if you think the player would take a 6 year deal for $180MM, and the team was willing to go to $180MM but only wanted five years, effectively you could get a 5/$175MM with a $5MM player option by front loading.

And agree the biggest difference which I didn't call out but you did is the AAV.

[sjb23]

Yeah whether it's 6yrs/$180M or 5 years to me is secondary - the more important point I was trying to make is there's an opportunity to land a middle-of-the-lineup LH bat who'll check off several boxes and also snatches him away from several other contending teams. I guess what I'm saying is I want to see them get aggressive, to show me they are serious about plugging up their holes and trying to win the AL East.

I've been pretty gung-ho about trading for Matt Olson - but they'd have to give up some pretty good names/prospects for just 2 seasons for a guy whose track record is not as impressive as Freeman's. Rizzo is a nice fit, but Freeman obviously has a higher ceiling. Voit should not be depended on.

Also from a marketing standpoint, the Yanks need to find ways to grab headlines (from the Mets), and a bold move like this can do just that.

On another note:

"The 132.2 regular-season innings Carlos Rodón threw were the most he’s tossed since 2016. For the most part, they were impressive, even when the pitcher wasn’t at full strength. That could quell concerns teams may have about his health, at least enough to set him up for a short-term payday.

Kluber was able to get $11 million out of the Yankees last offseason and signed a one-year, incentive-laden, $8 million contract with the Rays in November. He essentially missed all of the 2020 season and didn’t put the injury bug behind him in 2021 and still made out well; it stands to reason that Rodón could fetch a deal somewhere in between Kluber’s two most recent contracts.

With a barren market awaiting the post-lockout world, that’s an offer the Yankees should strongly consider."

Could Carlos Rodón be Yankees’ Next High-Risk, High-Reward SP Target? (msn.com)

Give me Freeman and Rodon and acquire a defensive standout @ SS and I can live with some of the other question marks.

[JDPNYY]

I wish there was one shred of evidence that would lead me to believe that Hal is going to ok any of these expenses that people are debating here.

[fredgmuggs]

I wish there was one shred of evidence that would lead me to believe that Hal is going to ok any of these expenses that people are debating here.

And there's also a lockout that also includes an embargo on player moves going on that I anticipate will last into the scheduled regular season so discussing potential off season moves during this time seems a bit fanciful.(even more so than usual)

[Portbb]

NJ.com today
How about 6 years at $227mil for Judge? With 2028-2030 vesting options based on plate appearances. Keep him a lifetime Yankee. Thru age 38.

[NelsonMuntz]

I wish there was one shred of evidence that would lead me to believe that Hal is going to ok any of these expenses that people are debating here.

Same. I'm fully expecting our big offseason free agent acquisition to be Simmons or someone of that caliber--especially if they expand the playoffs. There would be almost no reason for Hal to increase payroll if 7 teams from each league will make the playoffs. Crapshoot for life.

[Strategerie]

NJ.com today
How about 6 years at $227mil for Judge? With 2028-2030 vesting options based on plate appearances. Keep him a lifetime Yankee. Thru age 38.

Don't like that deal for the Yankees. High injury risk, high probability to become a DH sooner rather than later. Huge risk with low upside. Not a good baseball decision but the Yanks will probably have to pay extra for the brand value that he brings.

[yank4life2005]

Hal better lock up Judge as the final year or two will be a sunk cost for sure. Can't trade him as that is not the way Yankees operate.

Make him the next captain.

[Portbb]

Don't like that deal for the Yankees. High injury risk, high probability to become a DH sooner rather than later. Huge risk with low upside. Not a good baseball decision but the Yanks will probably have to pay extra for the brand value that he brings.

Judge is Yankees version of Joey Votto (different position). Votto at 38 a lifetime Red and face of franchise. Judge aiming to be.

[Zimmer's Helmet]

Same. I'm fully expecting our big offseason free agent acquisition to be Simmons or someone of that caliber--especially if they expand the playoffs. There would be almost no reason for Hal to increase payroll if 7 teams from each league will make the playoffs. Crapshoot for life.

Sadly, this is exactly what I expect will happen.

They’ll very likely sign Simmons or trade for Falefa as cheap options for SS, re-sign Rizzo and Gardner, dumpster dive for pitching depth and call it a day.

Until Hal sells the team, I’m afraid we’ll need to lower any expectations that this team cares about championships. It’s clear they don’t.

[matt2351]

Don't like that deal for the Yankees. High injury risk, high probability to become a DH sooner rather than later. Huge risk with low upside. Not a good baseball decision but the Yanks will probably have to pay extra for the brand value that he brings.

Totally agree. I do not like this deal.

[JDPNYY]

Sadly, this is exactly what I expect will happen.

They’ll very likely sign Simmons or trade for Falefa as cheap options for SS, re-sign Rizzo and Gardner, dumpster dive for pitching depth and call it a day.

Until Hal sells the team, I’m afraid we’ll need to lower any expectations that this team cares about championships. It’s clear they don’t.

I don't think Hal will even pony up to pay what Rizzo would need to sign.

[HelloNewman]

I wish there was one shred of evidence that would lead me to believe that Hal is going to ok any of these expenses that people are debating here.

It's hot stove season. When there's no good cordwood to be had, people will stoke the stove with any twigs, leaves, cardboard and crumpled up paper they can find.

[Strategerie]

Read an article speculating that Sean Murphy could be somewhat available. If we are trading with Oakland, I'd probably prefer him to Olson. As always, depends on the cost. I much prefer trading prospects for high upside players with lots of control who play at a premium position, even if they are less proven.