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**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by HelloNewman View Post

IOW there appear to be ways of increasing your odds long term, and there are some identifiable franchises who appear to do it better than the Yankees, so no Brian, not a crapshoot.

Long term repeated success is different from treating any single playoff as a crap shoot.
Both can have kernals of truth.
That said, I'm on board with replacing Cashman, just don't think ownership is.

Oh and my cross post shows that winning your league or best overall records does seem to significantly increase your odds of winning the WS but finishing 2nd to 5th in your league does seem to be a total crap shoot how you'll do in any given playoff year.

**False1** · 10-11-21, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by HelloNewman View Post

This is a mischaracterization, I am aware the best often don't win. The point is that over a fairly extended stretch, a preponderance of titles have gone to a relatively smaller group of franchises than could reasonably be expected to have won that number were playoffs indeed a "crapshoot" in the sense that term has been used by those who might derive benefit from having people believe in total randomness.

IOW there appear to be ways of increasing your odds long term, and there are some identifiable franchises who appear to do it better than the Yankees, so no Brian, not a crapshoot.

Right. It's certainly fair to say the best team doesn't always win. But that absolutely doesn't mean you don't want to be the best team.

Crapshoot refers to rolling dice in a game of craps, with the theory being that the outcomes are TOTALLY random. That you can't do anything at all to make each of the six-sided dice land in the position you hope they do to obtain the outcome you want. If you've ever played or even watched people play craps, there's almost a ritualistic approach to it. The player will carefully select their dice. They will oftentimes position them in specific ways before picking them up. They will usually throw them in the exact same ways - some with a bit of an arc, some with a more aggressive line drive style (where is stat cast when you need it?), etc. The bottom line is that all those rituals add no predictable improvement in outcomes. Literally zero.

Going into the playoffs with Brett Gardner as your CF and Andrew Velasquez as your SS has a non-zero impact to predictable outcome. Not a crapshoot.

Now, you could argue that your $30MM pitcher Cole crapping the bed in that particular start was also not the predictable outcome. And that is true. And all that does is make the argument that you need to have a well-rounded team that can overcome unexpected outcomes from any one given player. Maybe have an offense that won't get put to sleep against playoff pitching for example. Finish the roster.

**False1** · 10-11-21, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by Yankee Tripper View Post

Long term repeated success is different from treating any single playoff as a crap shoot.
Both can have kernals of truth.
That said, I'm on board with replacing Cashman, just don't think ownership is.

Oh and my cross post shows that winning your league or best overall records does seem to significantly increase your odds of winning the WS but finishing 2nd to 5th in your league does seem to be a total crap shoot how you'll do in any given playoff year.

But this is because odd things happen over the course of a 162 game season that won't necessarily manifest in a race to roughly a dozen wins in a handful of "win or go home" series.

Maybe one team finishes 3rd instead of 2nd because their star player missed significant regular season time but was healthy and ready in the playoffs, making that 3rd place regular season roster better than the 2nd place regular season roster. Maybe that 3rd place team loses a few H2H matchups with that 2nd place team in the regular season because they're not willing to pitch their closer on B2B days in a 162 game set.

What matters is the health and readiness of the roster going into the playoffs. And while health and some other-world performances from an occasional Bumgarner or Freese aren't in a team's total control, building the best possible roster in the offseason AND making shrewd move to bolster it at the deadline is certainly within a team's control. This team needs to get serious about putting the best team possible into the Opening Day lineup and then trying something other than "what players can I get for free?" at the deadline.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by False1 View Post

But this is because odd things happen over the course of a 162 game season that won't necessarily manifest in a race to roughly a dozen wins in a handful of "win or go home" series.

Maybe one team finishes 3rd instead of 2nd because their star player missed significant regular season time but was healthy and ready in the playoffs, making that 3rd place regular season roster better than the 2nd place regular season roster. Maybe that 3rd place team loses a few H2H matchups with that 2nd place team in the regular season because they're not willing to pitch their closer on B2B days in a 162 game set.

What matters is the health and readiness of the roster going into the playoffs. And while health and some other-world performances from an occasional Bumgarner or Freese aren't in a team's total control, building the best possible roster in the offseason AND making shrewd move to bolster it at the deadline is certainly within a team's control. This team needs to get serious about putting the best team possible into the Opening Day lineup and then trying something other than "what players can I get for free?" at the deadline.

You clearly want the best roster on paper, not sure anyone will argue with that.

And odd things can happen over the course of short series too, like IDK maybe a ball hitting the OF wall that looks to score the go ahead run in the 13th only to have it bounce off the right fielder's hip into the bullpen for a ground rule double and you don't score.

Oh and it all starts with getting cheap controllable players out oft he draft where they have been simply dreadful for most of the Cashman era which I think is the #1 indictement of his failures. What have the Yankees drafted and developed into into allstar talent under cashman outside of Judge and a few really good relievers? He's been pretty good in IFA but probably not as good as he should have been given Yankee resources especially before the cap on spending kicked in.

I'm just saying the data seems to agree that unless you are the #1 team in the AL or NL in a given year, they playoffs really are a crap shoot.

I mean people can go back and say "yeah but this or that" the facts of the past 9 years under the current format are be the best team in your league to stack the deck in your favor or take our chances on a roll of the dice as one of the other teams to make the post season tournament.

I'm mean I'm as pissed as anyone the Yanks haven't won it all since 2009 But after 2009 they had 3 straight years of 95+ wins which is pretty good, then in 2017 and 2018 they won over a 100 games in each year and still didn't have the best record in the AL, heck one of those 2 years they didn't even win the AL East. Which is sort of what happened to the Dodgers this year.

**False1** · 10-11-21, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by Yankee Tripper View Post

You clearly want the best roster on paper, not sure anyone will argue with that.

And odd things can happen over the course of short series too, like IDK maybe a ball hitting the OF wall that looks to score the go ahead run in the 13th only to have it bounce off the right fielder's hip into the bullpen for a ground rule double and you don't score.

Oh and it all starts with getting cheap controllable players out oft he draft where they have been simply dreadful for most of the Cashman era which I think is the #1 indictement of his failures. What have the Yankees drafted and developed into into allstar talent under cashman outside of Judge and a few really good relievers? He's been pretty good in IFA but probably not as good as he should have been given Yankee resources especially before the cap on spending kicked in.

I'm just saying the data seems to agree that unless you are the #1 team in the AL or NL in a given year, they playoffs really are a crap shoot.

I mean people can go back and say "yeah but this or that" the facts of the past 9 years under the current format are be the best team in your league to stack the deck in your favor or take our chances on a roll of the dice as one of the other teams to make the post season tournament.

I'm mean I'm as pissed as anyone the Yanks haven't won it all since 2009 But after 2009 they had 3 straight years of 95+ wins which is pretty good, then in 2017 and 2018 they won over a 100 games in each year and still didn't have the best record in the AL, heck one of those 2 years they didn't even win the AL East. Which is sort of what happened to the Dodgers this year.

I just am not going to endorse this "crapshoot" excuse from a team rolling in revenues and putting the lowest % of them back into the on field product as legitimate. Even if what you say above is true (I don't think it's nearly as linear as you do), all that means is that this team better invest to become the #1 team in the AL. It's not good enough if you want a legitimate shot at winning more than once in a 21 year window to invest to become the 3rd or 4th best team in the AL.

The crapshoot excuse is why instead of locking in on an aggressive strategy to sign Seager or Correa, keep DJL at 2B, trade Gleyber before he becomes a redux of Sanchez (if we just tweak this or that he'll get back to his ceiling), and signing/trading for a real 1B, they're almost certainly and heavily considering moving DJL to 1B, Gley to 2B, signing/acquiring a stop-gap SS and banking on Volpe racing to the majors, and keeping Ursh at 3B.

Crapshoot.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by False1 View Post

I just am not going to endorse this "crapshoot" excuse from a team rolling in revenues and putting the lowest % of them back into the on field product as legitimate. Even if what you say above is true (I don't think it's nearly as linear as you do), all that means is that this team better invest to become the #1 team in the AL. It's not good enough if you want a legitimate shot at winning more than once in a 21 year window to invest to become the 3rd or 4th best team in the AL.

The crapshoot excuse is why instead of locking in on an aggressive strategy to sign Seager or Correa, keep DJL at 2B, trade Gleyber before he becomes a redux of Sanchez (if we just tweak this or that he'll get back to his ceiling), and signing/trading for a real 1B, they're almost certainly and heavily considering moving DJL to 1B, Gley to 2B, signing/acquiring a stop-gap SS and banking on Volpe racing to the majors, and keeping Ursh at 3B.

Crapshoot.

I don't disagree.
outside of hockey where the playoffs seem to be totally random baseball is not like football or basketball where the better team almost always beats a lesser team.
But yeah they sink a relatively low percentage of revenues back into the product on the field relative to other teams.
They should be fielding lineups and pitching staffs like the Dodgers, not cutting corners and shaving a few bucks off the bottom line like the As.

Oh and the 88 win Braves who had the 5th best record in the NL and the 12th best in baseball worse than 2 AL teams who missed the Playoffs are 3 innings away from going back to the NLCS.

**Yankees1962** · 10-11-21, 02:33 PM

I don't disagree with you guys regarding fielding the best team possible, but the Yankees still had the second highest payroll in MLB this year.

**matt2351** · 10-11-21, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by False1 View Post

I hope that didn't come across as overly critical. Apologies if it did. I do think it's overly pessimistic, even if I can understand the underlying concerns.

A wager usually starts with a roughly 50/50 probability of happening. As you skew further and further from that, odds come into play to make the bet practical. When you say "near zero" it means the odds will have to be rather large for a bettor to take the opposite side of it. And even with a "Yankees against the field" bet, if someone gave me massive odds and a decade to realize them I'd be really interested in that.

As I stated in my prior post, if the Yankees are smart and stop being stubborn they could be one of the top contending teams as soon as next year and for the next several with opportunities that absolutely exist in FA and may exist via trades. Backup the money truck for Seager. If Freeman can be pried away from Atlanta, go get him. Or Rizzo. Backup the prospect truck for J-Ram or Olson. Get Stanton in the OF regularly. Hopefully the CBT provides much more clearance this go around then the last agreement, but even if it doesn't - who cares? They are going to have to exceed it to legitimately compete - the millions they spend on payroll and any CBT tax is a drop in the bucket for this franchise. DO. IT.

I didn't think it was overly critical in the least. I do think we might be looking at this from a slightly different angle. I am thinking along the lines of probability and not what a bet would look like. From what you are describing above, you'd be OK betting the Yankees against the field because you could lay out a relatively small amount and have 10 chances to collect a big payout. That is a slightly different appraisal than the one I have been making.

While I agree with everything you say here, I see no evidence that these things will happen. The amount of money we are talking about is significant. They would have to address C, 1B, SS, an OF, and 1 starting pitcher. Couple these needs with arbitration cases and you are looking at absolutely blowing past the thresholds. I agree that the Yankees can and should do this, but I can't see them going for it and this is part of my assessment. Also, I don't trust Cashman to allocate resources in a thoughtful and creative manner.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Yankees1962 View Post

I don't disagree with you guys regarding fielding the best team possible, but the Yankees still had the second highest payroll in MLB this year.

How much of that was invested in Chapman, Britton, O'day, Wilson? That's 4 relief pitchers who had opening day salaries totaling $33.6M roughly 17% of the Yankee payroll who combined to throw 102 IP, 7% of the Yankee total innings.

If you limit it to just Chapman and Briton it's $29M for just 75 IP or roughly 15% of the budget on just 5% of the innings.

It's one thing to spend, it's another to spend wisely.

I'm hoping Cashman has learned it's better to fill the BP cheap than and spend those resources on impact talent.

**Benefactor** · 10-11-21, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by Yankee Tripper View Post

I don't disagree.
outside of hockey where the playoffs seem to be totally random baseball is not like football or basketball where the better team almost always beats a lesser team.
But yeah they sink a relatively low percentage of revenues back into the product on the field relative to other teams.
They should be fielding lineups and pitching staffs like the Dodgers, not cutting corners and shaving a few bucks off the bottom line like the As.

Oh and the 88 win Braves who had the 5th best record in the NL and the 12th best in baseball worse than 2 AL teams who missed the Playoffs are 3 innings away from going back to the NLCS.

Three innings + another victory away from going back to the NLCS. It's only game 3.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by Benefactor View Post

Three innings + another victory away from going back to the NLCS.

smh - why did I think that series was 2-1? Oops.

**HelloNewman** · 10-11-21, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by Yankee Tripper View Post

Oh and the 88 win Braves who had the 5th best record in the NL and the 12th best in baseball worse than 2 AL teams who missed the Playoffs are 3 innings away from going back to the NLCS.

37-18 over the back third after being staggered earlier on by the loss of one of the biggest young stars in the game and the continued injury absence of their budding franchise pitcher. Not sure calling them out as an 88 win team gives a real faithful picture of where the Braves franchise is at this time.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by HelloNewman View Post

37-18 over the back third after being staggered earlier on by the loss of one of the biggest young stars in the game and the continued injury absence of their budding franchise pitcher. Not sure calling them out as an 88 win team gives a real faithful picture of where the Braves franchise is at this time.

So the fact that the only reason they made the playoffs is because they play in the NL East doesn't matter? They were lucky to play in the one division in all of baseball that gets them into the playoffs. If they are in any other division in baseball they don't even win enough games to snag a WC spot. How is that not a crap shoot?

Heck then because of the quirks of the MLB system they don't even have to play a WC game and avoid the 2 best teams in their league in the following round.

**yesteryearman** · 10-11-21, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by ymike673 View Post

Oh. So we count the last 4 games of 2004 LCS but not the first 3? And I guess 1999 does not count either. Pretty easy to bias the stats by just leaving out the games you don't like. Anyway what does 2004 have to do with now? Any players from those teams active this season?

OK, your point is very well made....let us concentrate only on 2021 season. What was our regular season head to head against Sox? What was our record in the wildcard game against them? The Red Sox are one game away from ALCS. Where are we?

**ymike673** · 10-11-21, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by Yankee Tripper View Post

So the fact that the only reason they made the playoffs is because they play in the NL East doesn't matter? They were lucky to play in the one division in all of baseball that gets them into the playoffs. If they are in any other division in baseball they don't even win enough games to snag a WC spot. How is that not a crap shoot?

Heck then because of the quirks of the MLB system they don't even have to play a WC game and avoid the 2 best teams in their league in the following round.

Sometimes that happens. The 87 win 2000 Yankees would have finished no better than 3rd in the Central and West Divisions that season. But they end up with a Division title and go on to win the World Series.

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