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**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by ymike673 View Post

Sometimes that happens. The 87 win 2000 Yankees would have finished no better than 3rd in the Central and West Divisions that season. But they end up with a Division title and go on to win the World Series.

See total crap shoot.

**ojo** · 10-11-21, 03:56 PM

This has to be a kind of hell (or a really bad purgatory) where fans of the recently departed postseason teams argue over whether or not it's a crapshoot to reach the postseason, or it's a crapshoot in the postseason, and if any sort of anecdotal evidence supports any theory circulating the arguments.

Can't we just expand the league two teams so that the Yankees can leave some of these guys exposed in the draft?

**ymike673** · 10-11-21, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by yesteryearman View Post

OK, your point is very well made....let us concentrate only on 2021 season. What was our regular season head to head against Sox? What was our record in the wildcard game against them? The Red Sox are one game away from ALCS. Where are we?

You said the Red Sox own us. I don't see how going 10-9 in the regular season against the Yankees constitutes owning them. As for the 1 game WC anything can happen in a 1 game playoff. Had the Yankees won that game I would not say it meant the Yankees owned them.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by yesteryearman View Post

OK, your point is very well made....let us concentrate only on 2021 season. What was our regular season head to head against Sox? What was our record in the wildcard game against them? The Red Sox are one game away from ALCS. Where are we?

The Red Sox were 10-9 v Yankees in the Regular season outscoring them 75-74 on the season.
The Red Sox won the winner take all WC 6-2
I'd hardly call that dominating the Yankees but yes the Red Sox are one game away from the ALCS while the Yankees are contimplating what went wrong this season.

**HelloNewman** · 10-11-21, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by Yankee Tripper View Post

See total crap shoot.

No, see the 2000 Yankees taking their foot off the gas after the Red Sox were finally buried. At 143 game point (just before nosedive), Yankees 84-59, eventual West champs Oakland 77-66, eventual WC Seattle 78-65.

Not as easy as just charting final w/l records.

**HelloNewman** · 10-11-21, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by ojo View Post

This has to be a kind of hell (or a really bad purgatory) where fans of the recently departed postseason teams argue over whether or not it's a crapshoot to reach the postseason, or it's a crapshoot in the postseason, and if any sort of anecdotal evidence supports any theory circulating the arguments.

Can't we just expand the league two teams so that the Yankees can leave some of these guys exposed in the draft?

Yeah, gone as far down that rabbit hole as I care to. Obviously pretty shrewd of Cashman to employ it as it does indeed find traction.

**False1** · 10-11-21, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by Yankee Tripper View Post

I don't disagree.
outside of hockey where the playoffs seem to be totally random baseball is not like football or basketball where the better team almost always beats a lesser team.
But yeah they sink a relatively low percentage of revenues back into the product on the field relative to other teams.
They should be fielding lineups and pitching staffs like the Dodgers, not cutting corners and shaving a few bucks off the bottom line like the As.

Oh and the 88 win Braves who had the 5th best record in the NL and the 12th best in baseball worse than 2 AL teams who missed the Playoffs are 3 innings away from going back to the NLCS.

88 win Braves kind of make my point about the regular season not being a good barometer for playoff success. This team has produced for the last 2+ months way differently than they did the first 2+ months.

First 60 games: 29-31 W/L... 4.8 R/G, 4.8 R/G allowed (0 run per game differential)
Last 60 games: 40-22 W/L... 5.1 R/G, 3.5 R/G allowed (+1.6 runs per game differential)

Pythag had the Braves at 95 wins this year, and the Brewers at 94 FWIW. In the regular season, players and managers may act/perform at different risk/reward levels than in a win-or-go-home environment. We saw the Yankees repeatedly spit the bit on wins in their grasp or just out of their grasp all year with bad bullpen decisions/performance.

Also, a difference of 7 wins over the course of 162 games is enormous in determining whether a team makes the playoffs and at what seed, but it's not a huge determining factor in terms of who wins in a short series. Generally, the better roster dictates that. There are exceptions, of course... but as we're both saying (before we diverge for some reason) the better the roster, the better the odds. And even incremental odds improvements in a system like the MLB playoffs are huge.

We should all reject silly one-off examples like the unprecedented, once-in-history event in the Sox/Rays game the other day when that gets tossed out as "crapshoot" fodder. It's dumb.

Also, that series isn't 3 innings from being over. The Brewers could win it. Alternatively, perhaps they struggle to come back in part because of the freak self-inflicted injury of Williams in a post-season celebration that had nothing to do with their regular season W/L but hurts their playoff roster.

The CRAPSHOOT theory would lead you to believe that the Braves could trade Ronald Acuna for a bag of balls because Joc Pederson.

**Portbb** · 10-11-21, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by False1 View Post

88 win Braves kind of make my point about the regular season not being a good barometer for playoff success. This team has produced for the last 2+ months way differently than they did the first 2+ months.

First 60 games: 29-31 W/L... 4.8 R/G, 4.8 R/G allowed (0 run per game differential)
Last 60 games: 40-22 W/L... 5.1 R/G, 3.5 R/G allowed (+1.6 runs per game differential)

Pythag had the Braves at 95 wins this year, and the Brewers at 94 FWIW. In the regular season, players and managers may act/perform at different risk/reward levels than in a win-or-go-home environment. We saw the Yankees repeatedly spit the bit on wins in their grasp or just out of their grasp all year with bad bullpen decisions/performance.

Also, a difference of 7 wins over the course of 162 games is enormous in determining whether a team makes the playoffs and at what seed, but it's not a huge determining factor in terms of who wins in a short series. Generally, the better roster dictates that. There are exceptions, of course... but as we're both saying (before we diverge for some reason) the better the roster, the better the odds. And even incremental odds improvements in a system like the MLB playoffs are huge.

We should all reject silly one-off examples like the unprecedented, once-in-history event in the Sox/Rays game the other day when that gets tossed out as "crapshoot" fodder. It's dumb.

Also, that series isn't 3 innings from being over. The Brewers could win it. Alternatively, perhaps they struggle to come back in part because of the freak self-inflicted injury of Williams in a post-season celebration that had nothing to do with their regular season W/L but hurts their playoff roster.

The CRAPSHOOT theory would lead you to believe that the Braves could trade Ronald Acuna for a bag of balls because Joc Pederson.

Braves made deadline trades with 6 different teams- the Pirates, Royals, Marlins, Indians, Dbacks and Cubs. They tried to improve and it worked.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by False1 View Post

Pythag had the Braves at 95 wins this year, and the Brewers at 94 FWIW. In the regular season, players and managers may act/perform at different risk/reward levels than in a win-or-go-home environment. We saw the Yankees repeatedly spit the bit on wins in their grasp or just out of their grasp all year with bad bullpen decisions/performance.

And yet the Yankees pythag record was 86-76 . They performed 6 games better than their predicted record. So did Boone's magaging on a whole get them to perform better than the should have? Or did his questionable calls bullpen hurt them? It's an interesting question I don't think we can answer.

Also, a difference of 7 wins over the course of 162 games is enormous in determining whether a team makes the playoffs and at what seed, but it's not a huge determining factor in terms of who wins in a short series. Generally, the better roster dictates that. There are exceptions, of course... but as we're both saying (before we diverge for some reason) the better the roster, the better the odds. And even incremental odds improvements in a system like the MLB playoffs are huge.

I agree that the best roster is always the goal as the best talent will win the most often and give you the greatest margin for error.

We should all reject silly one-off examples like the unprecedented, once-in-history event in the Sox/Rays game the other day when that gets tossed out as "crapshoot" fodder. It's dumb.

But silly one offs happen in nearly every series that is decided by 1 game. I mean if Tony Clark's ball in G5 hits the wall in RF instead of skipping over the lowest RF wall in MLB by inches the Yankees win the 2004 ALCS and we never talk about the 3-0 comeback.

If replay is around in 1996 Jeffery Maier never becomes a household name and the dynasty might not have gotten kicked off.

The CRAPSHOOT theory would lead you to believe that the Braves could trade Ronald Acuna for a bag of balls because Joc Pederson.

I have no idea what you are going for with this one. The funny thing is if Acuna doesn't get hurt do the Braves make the moves they did that were instrumental in their 2nd half surge?

Oh and I think the Yankees played .630 ball in the 2nd half which translated to a 102 wins over 162, but 1st half games count too.

**newhampfan** · 10-11-21, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by ymike673 View Post

You said the Red Sox own us. I don't see how going 10-9 in the regular season against the Yankees constitutes owning them. As for the 1 game WC anything can happen in a 1 game playoff. Had the Yankees won that game I would not say it meant the Yankees owned them.

Even in years when one of the two teams dominates the rest of the league, the Yanks and Red Sox play pretty close to .500.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by Portbb View Post

Braves made deadline trades with 6 different teams- the Pirates, Royals, Marlins, Indians, Dbacks and Cubs. They tried to improve and it worked.

The Yankees made 4 deadline deals and played .630 baseball after the break. I mean I guess you can argue the impact Rizzo, Holmes, Gallo and Heaney had but the they Yanks also made deals and improved.

**Yankee Tripper** · 10-11-21, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by False1 View Post

88 win Braves kind of make my point about the regular season not being a good barometer for playoff success.

But than what it?

I think we largely agree on the following
That it is desirable to construct the best roster with the most talent possible.
That a team constructed as such should win the most games over the course of a 162 games but there might be some anomolies from time to time (like this year with Dodgers & Giants)
That the best team should win a short series against a team with less talent, but it doesn't always happen.

I think where we might disagree
- the extent to which regular season record is a predictor of post season success
- the amount of randomness or variation in any short 5 or 7 game series.

**YFIB** · 10-11-21, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by Yankee Tripper View Post

But than what it?

I think we largely agree on the following
That it is desirable to construct the best roster with the most talent possible.
That a team constructed as such should win the most games over the course of a 162 games but there might be some anomolies from time to time (like this year with Dodgers & Giants)
That the best team should win a short series against a team with less talent, but it doesn't always happen.

I think where we might disagree
- the extent to which regular season record is a predictor of post season success
- the amount of randomness or variation in any short 5 or 7 game series.

I think you can also say that, historically, randomness is more prevalent now than in the past because of the playoff structure. When I started following baseball, you had 26 teams, and only two playoff teams in each league. The current league structure, increased playoff participation, etc., making it more likely that the "best" teams won't participate in the World Series, and that you'll end up with an unexpected outcome.

**RoyWilliams** · 10-11-21, 06:17 PM

If Tampa bay in this series was us there would be a revolt on here. Tampa has had the worst luck besides getting hosed on every call.

It does not stop its like there is a fix in if not for replay it would be worse.

**Obnoxio** · 10-11-21, 06:27 PM

Seems to me that “crapshoot “ and “no such thing as hot streak” are opposing theories.

craps three true outcome: 6, 7, 8. That’s where you bet for the best odds. So yes u need to build a team of 6s and 8s to have best chance to win. 7s are the strikeout kings.

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